The 2026 French Socialist Party presidential primary, a closed two-round vote among PS, Place Publique, and GRS members set for 9–10 October, features a fragmented field that keeps second-place probabilities tightly clustered. Olivier Faure’s position as party first secretary and his push for broader participation rules have sustained his lead in implied odds for second, while Raphaël Glucksmann benefits from stronger polling among sympathizers yet faces internal resistance over primary access. Recent candidate declarations by Ségolène Royal, Philippe Brun, Emmanuel Maurel, and Jérôme Guedj, combined with disputes over the 15-euro voting fee and vetoes on outsiders such as François Ruffin, have reinforced uncertainty about vote distribution. Trader consensus reflects these institutional frictions and the absence of decisive polling shifts in the final weeks before ballots open.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoOlivier Faure 34%
Raphaël Glucksmann 24%
Ségolène Royal 19%
Philippe Brun 15%
NUOVO
NUOVO
10 ott 2026
Olivier Faure
34%
Raphaël Glucksmann
20%
Ségolène Royal
19%
Philippe Brun
15%
Jérôme Guedj
9%
Emmanuel Maurel
9%
Olivier Faure 34%
Raphaël Glucksmann 24%
Ségolène Royal 19%
Philippe Brun 15%
NUOVO
NUOVO
10 ott 2026
Olivier Faure
$163 Vol.
34%
Raphaël Glucksmann
$94 Vol.
20%
Ségolène Royal
$52 Vol.
19%
Philippe Brun
$69 Vol.
15%
Jérôme Guedj
$68 Vol.
9%
Emmanuel Maurel
$192 Vol.
9%
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the second-greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.The 2026 French Socialist Party presidential primary, a closed two-round vote among PS, Place Publique, and GRS members set for 9–10 October, features a fragmented field that keeps second-place probabilities tightly clustered. Olivier Faure’s position as party first secretary and his push for broader participation rules have sustained his lead in implied odds for second, while Raphaël Glucksmann benefits from stronger polling among sympathizers yet faces internal resistance over primary access. Recent candidate declarations by Ségolène Royal, Philippe Brun, Emmanuel Maurel, and Jérôme Guedj, combined with disputes over the 15-euro voting fee and vetoes on outsiders such as François Ruffin, have reinforced uncertainty about vote distribution. Trader consensus reflects these institutional frictions and the absence of decisive polling shifts in the final weeks before ballots open.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the second-greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the second-greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Mercato aperto: Sep 9, 2026, 6:27 PM ET
Volume
$638Data di fine
10 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 9, 2026, 6:27 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the second-greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.The 2026 French Socialist Party presidential primary, a closed two-round vote among PS, Place Publique, and GRS members set for 9–10 October, features a fragmented field that keeps second-place probabilities tightly clustered. Olivier Faure’s position as party first secretary and his push for broader participation rules have sustained his lead in implied odds for second, while Raphaël Glucksmann benefits from stronger polling among sympathizers yet faces internal resistance over primary access. Recent candidate declarations by Ségolène Royal, Philippe Brun, Emmanuel Maurel, and Jérôme Guedj, combined with disputes over the 15-euro voting fee and vetoes on outsiders such as François Ruffin, have reinforced uncertainty about vote distribution. Trader consensus reflects these institutional frictions and the absence of decisive polling shifts in the final weeks before ballots open.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the second-greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the second-greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Volume
$638Data di fine
10 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 9, 2026, 6:27 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 French Socialist Party presidential primary, a closed two-round vote among PS, Place Publique, and GRS members set for 9–10 October, features a fragmented field that keeps second-place probabilities tightly clustered. Olivier Faure’s position as party first secretary and his push for broader participation rules have sustained his lead in implied odds for second, while Raphaël Glucksmann benefits from stronger polling among sympathizers yet faces internal resistance over primary access. Recent candidate declarations by Ségolène Royal, Philippe Brun, Emmanuel Maurel, and Jérôme Guedj, combined with disputes over the 15-euro voting fee and vetoes on outsiders such as François Ruffin, have reinforced uncertainty about vote distribution. Trader consensus reflects these institutional frictions and the absence of decisive polling shifts in the final weeks before ballots open.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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