Trader consensus around 2.0–2.5% real GDP growth for 2026 reflects balanced risks between AI-driven capital expenditures and productivity gains supporting above-trend expansion versus headwinds from tariffs, reduced immigration, and energy price pressures tied to geopolitical tensions. Official projections cluster near this range, with the CBO at 2.2%, the Fed’s June median at 2.2–2.3%, and private forecasters such as Vanguard at 2.3% and S&P Global at 2.1%. Recent data show a shift toward investment-led growth as consumer affordability constraints emerge, while sticky core inflation near 3% keeps the Fed on hold. The tight spread between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% bins underscores uncertainty over the net impact of fiscal measures, trade adjustments, and labor force dynamics through year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCrescita del PIL nel 2026
Crescita del PIL nel 2026
2,0–2,5% 31%
1,5–2,0% 29.5%
>2,5% 19%
1,0–1,5% 9.6%
$58,195 Vol.
$58,195 Vol.
29 gen 2027
<0,5%
2%
0,5–1,0%
4%
1,0–1,5%
10%
1,5–2,0%
30%
2,0–2,5%
31%
>2,5%
19%
2,0–2,5% 31%
1,5–2,0% 29.5%
>2,5% 19%
1,0–1,5% 9.6%
$58,195 Vol.
$58,195 Vol.
29 gen 2027
<0,5%
$7,469 Vol.
2%
0,5–1,0%
$17,234 Vol.
4%
1,0–1,5%
$3,824 Vol.
10%
1,5–2,0%
$6,632 Vol.
30%
2,0–2,5%
$7,095 Vol.
31%
>2,5%
$15,941 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus around 2.0–2.5% real GDP growth for 2026 reflects balanced risks between AI-driven capital expenditures and productivity gains supporting above-trend expansion versus headwinds from tariffs, reduced immigration, and energy price pressures tied to geopolitical tensions. Official projections cluster near this range, with the CBO at 2.2%, the Fed’s June median at 2.2–2.3%, and private forecasters such as Vanguard at 2.3% and S&P Global at 2.1%. Recent data show a shift toward investment-led growth as consumer affordability constraints emerge, while sticky core inflation near 3% keeps the Fed on hold. The tight spread between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% bins underscores uncertainty over the net impact of fiscal measures, trade adjustments, and labor force dynamics through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Volume
$58,195Data di fine
29 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus around 2.0–2.5% real GDP growth for 2026 reflects balanced risks between AI-driven capital expenditures and productivity gains supporting above-trend expansion versus headwinds from tariffs, reduced immigration, and energy price pressures tied to geopolitical tensions. Official projections cluster near this range, with the CBO at 2.2%, the Fed’s June median at 2.2–2.3%, and private forecasters such as Vanguard at 2.3% and S&P Global at 2.1%. Recent data show a shift toward investment-led growth as consumer affordability constraints emerge, while sticky core inflation near 3% keeps the Fed on hold. The tight spread between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% bins underscores uncertainty over the net impact of fiscal measures, trade adjustments, and labor force dynamics through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$58,195Data di fine
29 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus around 2.0–2.5% real GDP growth for 2026 reflects balanced risks between AI-driven capital expenditures and productivity gains supporting above-trend expansion versus headwinds from tariffs, reduced immigration, and energy price pressures tied to geopolitical tensions. Official projections cluster near this range, with the CBO at 2.2%, the Fed’s June median at 2.2–2.3%, and private forecasters such as Vanguard at 2.3% and S&P Global at 2.1%. Recent data show a shift toward investment-led growth as consumer affordability constraints emerge, while sticky core inflation near 3% keeps the Fed on hold. The tight spread between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% bins underscores uncertainty over the net impact of fiscal measures, trade adjustments, and labor force dynamics through year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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