**Forecast consensus from MetService, NIWA, and international models centers on a maximum of 15–16°C for Wellington on August 25, 2026, under mainly fine conditions with northwesterly winds.** These flows typically advect milder maritime air across the region while limiting cloud cover, supporting daytime warming above the seasonal average of roughly 12–13°C. Recent model runs and observations show a transition to settled high-pressure conditions following earlier polar outbreaks, which has lifted temperatures toward or slightly above average in the days leading up to the event. Traders assign the highest implied probability to 16°C (52.5%) because ensemble guidance clusters there, with 17°C (27.0%) reflecting upside potential from stronger insolation or a warmer boundary layer. Lower outcomes such as 15°C (13.5%) remain plausible if a passing front introduces more cloud or if winds weaken. Key resolution hinges on the official maximum recorded at the primary Wellington observing site; updates from MetService or NIWA over the next 24 hours will refine the final distribution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta a Wellington il 25 agosto?
La temperatura più alta a Wellington il 25 agosto?
16°C 53%
17°C 27%
15°C 14%
18°C 4%
NUOVO
$13,256 Vol.
NUOVO
$13,256 Vol.
25 ago 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
2%
15°C
14%
16°C
53%
17°C
27%
18°C
4%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
16°C 53%
17°C 27%
15°C 14%
18°C 4%
NUOVO
$13,256 Vol.
NUOVO
$13,256 Vol.
25 ago 2026
10°C or below
$650 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$521 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$239 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$252 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$1,048 Vol.
2%
15°C
$2,164 Vol.
14%
16°C
$3,643 Vol.
53%
17°C
$2,303 Vol.
27%
18°C
$937 Vol.
4%
19°C
$238 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$1,261 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from MetService, NIWA, and international models centers on a maximum of 15–16°C for Wellington on August 25, 2026, under mainly fine conditions with northwesterly winds.** These flows typically advect milder maritime air across the region while limiting cloud cover, supporting daytime warming above the seasonal average of roughly 12–13°C. Recent model runs and observations show a transition to settled high-pressure conditions following earlier polar outbreaks, which has lifted temperatures toward or slightly above average in the days leading up to the event.
Traders assign the highest implied probability to 16°C (52.5%) because ensemble guidance clusters there, with 17°C (27.0%) reflecting upside potential from stronger insolation or a warmer boundary layer. Lower outcomes such as 15°C (13.5%) remain plausible if a passing front introduces more cloud or if winds weaken. Key resolution hinges on the official maximum recorded at the primary Wellington observing site; updates from MetService or NIWA over the next 24 hours will refine the final distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$13,256Data di fine
25 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from MetService, NIWA, and international models centers on a maximum of 15–16°C for Wellington on August 25, 2026, under mainly fine conditions with northwesterly winds.** These flows typically advect milder maritime air across the region while limiting cloud cover, supporting daytime warming above the seasonal average of roughly 12–13°C. Recent model runs and observations show a transition to settled high-pressure conditions following earlier polar outbreaks, which has lifted temperatures toward or slightly above average in the days leading up to the event.
Traders assign the highest implied probability to 16°C (52.5%) because ensemble guidance clusters there, with 17°C (27.0%) reflecting upside potential from stronger insolation or a warmer boundary layer. Lower outcomes such as 15°C (13.5%) remain plausible if a passing front introduces more cloud or if winds weaken. Key resolution hinges on the official maximum recorded at the primary Wellington observing site; updates from MetService or NIWA over the next 24 hours will refine the final distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$13,256Data di fine
25 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus from MetService, NIWA, and international models centers on a maximum of 15–16°C for Wellington on August 25, 2026, under mainly fine conditions with northwesterly winds.** These flows typically advect milder maritime air across the region while limiting cloud cover, supporting daytime warming above the seasonal average of roughly 12–13°C. Recent model runs and observations show a transition to settled high-pressure conditions following earlier polar outbreaks, which has lifted temperatures toward or slightly above average in the days leading up to the event. Traders assign the highest implied probability to 16°C (52.5%) because ensemble guidance clusters there, with 17°C (27.0%) reflecting upside potential from stronger insolation or a warmer boundary layer. Lower outcomes such as 15°C (13.5%) remain plausible if a passing front introduces more cloud or if winds weaken. Key resolution hinges on the official maximum recorded at the primary Wellington observing site; updates from MetService or NIWA over the next 24 hours will refine the final distribution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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