The 10-year Treasury yield recently traded near 4.43–4.47% after touching 4.55% in mid-June 2026, reflecting sticky core inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, elevated term premiums, and fiscal deficit concerns. Persistent geopolitical risks in the Middle East have supported higher oil prices and inflation expectations, while the Fed’s patient stance—evident in the June 16–17 FOMC meeting—has kept short-term rate cuts limited and anchored longer-term yields in the 4–4.5% range. Market-implied odds price in upside risks from resilient growth and policy uncertainty through year-end, tempered by potential labor-market softening or recession signals that could cap peaks before 2027. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases, the July FOMC meeting, and any shifts in Treasury supply dynamics.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuanto sarà alto il rendimento del Tesoro a 10 anni prima del 2027?
Quanto sarà alto il rendimento del Tesoro a 10 anni prima del 2027?
$240,009 Vol.
31 dic 2026
4,8%
26%
5,0%
15%
5,2%
4%
5,5%
5%
5,7%
4%
6,0%
3%
$240,009 Vol.
4,8%
$51,236 Vol.
26%
5,0%
$58,551 Vol.
15%
5,2%
$15,297 Vol.
4%
5,5%
$2,475 Vol.
5%
5,7%
$3,817 Vol.
4%
6,0%
$2,348 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield recently traded near 4.43–4.47% after touching 4.55% in mid-June 2026, reflecting sticky core inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, elevated term premiums, and fiscal deficit concerns. Persistent geopolitical risks in the Middle East have supported higher oil prices and inflation expectations, while the Fed’s patient stance—evident in the June 16–17 FOMC meeting—has kept short-term rate cuts limited and anchored longer-term yields in the 4–4.5% range. Market-implied odds price in upside risks from resilient growth and policy uncertainty through year-end, tempered by potential labor-market softening or recession signals that could cap peaks before 2027. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases, the July FOMC meeting, and any shifts in Treasury supply dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Mercato aperto: Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET
Volume
$240,009Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield recently traded near 4.43–4.47% after touching 4.55% in mid-June 2026, reflecting sticky core inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, elevated term premiums, and fiscal deficit concerns. Persistent geopolitical risks in the Middle East have supported higher oil prices and inflation expectations, while the Fed’s patient stance—evident in the June 16–17 FOMC meeting—has kept short-term rate cuts limited and anchored longer-term yields in the 4–4.5% range. Market-implied odds price in upside risks from resilient growth and policy uncertainty through year-end, tempered by potential labor-market softening or recession signals that could cap peaks before 2027. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases, the July FOMC meeting, and any shifts in Treasury supply dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$240,009Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield recently traded near 4.43–4.47% after touching 4.55% in mid-June 2026, reflecting sticky core inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, elevated term premiums, and fiscal deficit concerns. Persistent geopolitical risks in the Middle East have supported higher oil prices and inflation expectations, while the Fed’s patient stance—evident in the June 16–17 FOMC meeting—has kept short-term rate cuts limited and anchored longer-term yields in the 4–4.5% range. Market-implied odds price in upside risks from resilient growth and policy uncertainty through year-end, tempered by potential labor-market softening or recession signals that could cap peaks before 2027. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases, the July FOMC meeting, and any shifts in Treasury supply dynamics.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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