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icon for Quanti terremoti di magnitudo 7.0 o superiore entro il 30 giugno? (Colpi superiori)

Quanti terremoti di magnitudo 7.0 o superiore entro il 30 giugno? (Colpi superiori)

icon for Quanti terremoti di magnitudo 7.0 o superiore entro il 30 giugno? (Colpi superiori)

Quanti terremoti di magnitudo 7.0 o superiore entro il 30 giugno? (Colpi superiori)

giu 30

dic 31

giu 30

dic 31

≤8 50%

10 15%

9 14%

11 11%

Polymarket

$90,387 Vol.

≤8 50%

10 15%

9 14%

11 11%

Polymarket

$90,387 Vol.

≤8

$25,442 Vol.

50%

9

$17,549 Vol.

20%

10

$8,417 Vol.

15%

11

$28,083 Vol.

11%

12

$4,406 Vol.

7%

13

$2,773 Vol.

4%

14+

$3,718 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Five confirmed magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes have occurred worldwide through mid-May 2026, primarily along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones in Tonga, Vanuatu, Indonesia, and Japan, according to USGS records. This tally aligns with the long-term average of roughly 15 such events per year, yet a three-week lull since the April 20 Japan event has tempered expectations for rapid accumulation before June 30. Seismicity follows a Poisson distribution characterized by clustering and quiet intervals, leaving traders to weigh the potential for one or two additional events in the coming six weeks against the risk of continued subdued activity. Ongoing USGS monitoring of major fault systems will determine whether the year-to-date pace holds or shifts the final June 30 count.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$90,387
Data di fine
30 giu 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 2, 2026, 6:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Five confirmed magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes have occurred worldwide through mid-May 2026, primarily along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones in Tonga, Vanuatu, Indonesia, and Japan, according to USGS records. This tally aligns with the long-term average of roughly 15 such events per year, yet a three-week lull since the April 20 Japan event has tempered expectations for rapid accumulation before June 30. Seismicity follows a Poisson distribution characterized by clustering and quiet intervals, leaving traders to weigh the potential for one or two additional events in the coming six weeks against the risk of continued subdued activity. Ongoing USGS monitoring of major fault systems will determine whether the year-to-date pace holds or shifts the final June 30 count.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$90,387
Data di fine
30 giu 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 2, 2026, 6:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

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Domande frequenti

"Quanti terremoti di magnitudo 7.0 o superiore entro il 30 giugno? (Colpi superiori)" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 7 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "≤8" a 50%, seguito da "9" a 20%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 50¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 50% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Quanti terremoti di magnitudo 7.0 o superiore entro il 30 giugno? (Colpi superiori)" ha generato $90.4K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Apr 2, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Quanti terremoti di magnitudo 7.0 o superiore entro il 30 giugno? (Colpi superiori)", esplora i 7 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Quanti terremoti di magnitudo 7.0 o superiore entro il 30 giugno? (Colpi superiori)" è "≤8" a 50%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 50% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "9" a 20%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Quanti terremoti di magnitudo 7.0 o superiore entro il 30 giugno? (Colpi superiori)" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.