Recent ensemble forecasts from INMET, ECMWF, and GFS models indicate a daytime high near 24°C in São Paulo on May 17, driven by stable subtropical air, light winds, and limited cloud cover that favor modest warming above seasonal norms. This aligns with late-autumn climatology, where average maxima reach 22–23°C at the official São Paulo-Guarulhos Airport station used for market resolution, while cooler frontal passages remain unlikely in the short term. Traders therefore assign the strongest implied probability to 23°C or higher, with only modest volume on 22°C reflecting residual model spread and the narrow window for any late-day cooling. No major data revisions have altered this outlook in the past 48 hours.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta a San Paolo il 17 maggio?
La temperatura più alta a San Paolo il 17 maggio?
23°C or higher 77%
22°C 19%
21°C 4.0%
20°C 3.1%
NUOVO
$11,415 Vol.
NUOVO
$11,415 Vol.
17 mag 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
3%
21°C
4%
22°C
19%
23°C or higher
77%
23°C or higher 77%
22°C 19%
21°C 4.0%
20°C 3.1%
NUOVO
$11,415 Vol.
NUOVO
$11,415 Vol.
17 mag 2026
13°C or below
$1,396 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$547 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$978 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$1,000 Vol.
1%
17°C
$598 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,301 Vol.
1%
19°C
$713 Vol.
1%
20°C
$925 Vol.
3%
21°C
$847 Vol.
4%
22°C
$795 Vol.
19%
23°C or higher
$2,346 Vol.
77%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from INMET, ECMWF, and GFS models indicate a daytime high near 24°C in São Paulo on May 17, driven by stable subtropical air, light winds, and limited cloud cover that favor modest warming above seasonal norms. This aligns with late-autumn climatology, where average maxima reach 22–23°C at the official São Paulo-Guarulhos Airport station used for market resolution, while cooler frontal passages remain unlikely in the short term. Traders therefore assign the strongest implied probability to 23°C or higher, with only modest volume on 22°C reflecting residual model spread and the narrow window for any late-day cooling. No major data revisions have altered this outlook in the past 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$11,415Data di fine
17 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from INMET, ECMWF, and GFS models indicate a daytime high near 24°C in São Paulo on May 17, driven by stable subtropical air, light winds, and limited cloud cover that favor modest warming above seasonal norms. This aligns with late-autumn climatology, where average maxima reach 22–23°C at the official São Paulo-Guarulhos Airport station used for market resolution, while cooler frontal passages remain unlikely in the short term. Traders therefore assign the strongest implied probability to 23°C or higher, with only modest volume on 22°C reflecting residual model spread and the narrow window for any late-day cooling. No major data revisions have altered this outlook in the past 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$11,415Data di fine
17 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRRecent ensemble forecasts from INMET, ECMWF, and GFS models indicate a daytime high near 24°C in São Paulo on May 17, driven by stable subtropical air, light winds, and limited cloud cover that favor modest warming above seasonal norms. This aligns with late-autumn climatology, where average maxima reach 22–23°C at the official São Paulo-Guarulhos Airport station used for market resolution, while cooler frontal passages remain unlikely in the short term. Traders therefore assign the strongest implied probability to 23°C or higher, with only modest volume on 22°C reflecting residual model spread and the narrow window for any late-day cooling. No major data revisions have altered this outlook in the past 48 hours.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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