**Ongoing Houthi threats and selective carrier returns to the Red Sea route are the dominant forces shaping trader expectations for Bab el-Mandeb transits in the week of August 31.** Recent attacks, including the August 24 strike on the Saudi tanker Amzan and the August 11 incident that killed six crew on the cargo ship Tihamah, have kept war-risk premiums elevated and prompted many operators to treat Suez routings as conditional. Tanker flows, especially Saudi-linked crude from Yanbu, remain suppressed, with some vessels diverting or going dark. At the same time, major container lines including MSC (four east-west services committed August 24), Maersk (over 30% of Asia-Europe volume shifted back), and CMA CGM have resumed limited Suez sailings after reviewing security conditions, boosting overall corridor activity. AIS-visible weekly counts have stabilized in the 200–223 range (e.g., 223 for August 10–16 and 200 for August 3–9), well below pre-crisis norms but higher than the immediate post-July blockade trough. Many transits occur with AIS off for operational security, and total vessel counts reflect a mix of recovering container traffic offset by tanker caution. These dynamics anchor implied probabilities on the 170–209 bins, with limited upside from further escalations or downside from rapid normalization unlikely before early September data emerges.