Recent Houthi territorial advances near the strait, including control of Mokha and Perim Island, combined with renewed threats targeting Saudi-linked vessels, have stalled the recovery in Bab el-Mandeb transits despite broader Suez Canal gains from Hormuz disruptions. Weekly volumes reached 264–290 vessels in mid-to-late September 2026 per Lloyd’s List Intelligence and Kpler data, down from pre-crisis norms but above 2024 troughs, with selective routing by non-Western carriers sustaining flows while larger tankers and Western operators avoid the route. This environment of affiliation-driven risk and limited naval escorts supports the market-implied concentration around 210–229 transits for the October 5 week, reflecting trader consensus on stable yet constrained activity amid elevated war-risk premiums and potential for short-term dips.