Recent Houthi advances along Yemen’s western coast and renewed threats targeting Saudi-linked vessels have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed well below the pre-2023 baseline of roughly 60 ships per day. AIS data through early October show weekly totals near 260–290 vessels, equating to daily averages of 37–41, with tanker traffic notably lighter at around 10 per day amid selective rerouting and elevated war-risk premiums near 1% of hull value. The 25–29 bracket leads at 52.5% implied probability because ongoing carrier caution—particularly for VLCCs and Saudi cargoes—combined with periodic spikes in protective messaging and armed-guard usage continues to cap volumes in the mid-to-high twenties. Modest recovery in container services via Suez has supported the next bracket at 22%, while further escalation risks or expanded blockades keep lower outcomes priced at 12%. Traders are watching October carrier schedules and any fresh Houthi statements for signals on whether traffic stabilizes or dips closer to August lows.