Recent June activity, including a major Midwest outbreak on June 11 that produced at least 20 confirmed tornadoes in northern Illinois and Indiana, has elevated preliminary counts and aligned trader sentiment with bins bracketing the 1991–2020 June average of roughly 212. Mid-month model guidance and SPC outlooks indicate mixed steering patterns and instability, with potential for additional discrete supercells but also periods of suppression from ridging or reduced moisture. This genuine forecast uncertainty—typical given rapid shifts in convective available potential energy and shear—explains the tight clustering around 160–249 outcomes, with final resolution hinging on the next 12 days of National Weather Service verification data.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHow many Tornadoes in the US in June?
How many Tornadoes in the US in June?
310+ 95.8%
280–310 1.6%
250–279 1.1%
100–129 <1%
$19,086 Vol.
$19,086 Vol.
8 lug 2026
<100
1%
100–129
1%
130–159
<1%
160–189
<1%
190–219
<1%
220–249
1%
250–279
1%
280–310
2%
310+
96%
310+ 95.8%
280–310 1.6%
250–279 1.1%
100–129 <1%
$19,086 Vol.
$19,086 Vol.
8 lug 2026
<100
$4,690 Vol.
1%
100–129
$3,353 Vol.
1%
130–159
$2,172 Vol.
<1%
160–189
$1,520 Vol.
<1%
190–219
$1,388 Vol.
<1%
220–249
$1,960 Vol.
1%
250–279
$1,109 Vol.
1%
280–310
$946 Vol.
2%
310+
$1,948 Vol.
96%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on July 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Recent June activity, including a major Midwest outbreak on June 11 that produced at least 20 confirmed tornadoes in northern Illinois and Indiana, has elevated preliminary counts and aligned trader sentiment with bins bracketing the 1991–2020 June average of roughly 212. Mid-month model guidance and SPC outlooks indicate mixed steering patterns and instability, with potential for additional discrete supercells but also periods of suppression from ridging or reduced moisture. This genuine forecast uncertainty—typical given rapid shifts in convective available potential energy and shear—explains the tight clustering around 160–249 outcomes, with final resolution hinging on the next 12 days of National Weather Service verification data.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on July 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on July 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Mercato aperto: May 26, 2026, 7:35 PM ET
Volume
$19,086Data di fine
8 lug 2026Mercato aperto
May 26, 2026, 7:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on July 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Recent June activity, including a major Midwest outbreak on June 11 that produced at least 20 confirmed tornadoes in northern Illinois and Indiana, has elevated preliminary counts and aligned trader sentiment with bins bracketing the 1991–2020 June average of roughly 212. Mid-month model guidance and SPC outlooks indicate mixed steering patterns and instability, with potential for additional discrete supercells but also periods of suppression from ridging or reduced moisture. This genuine forecast uncertainty—typical given rapid shifts in convective available potential energy and shear—explains the tight clustering around 160–249 outcomes, with final resolution hinging on the next 12 days of National Weather Service verification data.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on July 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on July 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$19,086Data di fine
8 lug 2026Mercato aperto
May 26, 2026, 7:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent June activity, including a major Midwest outbreak on June 11 that produced at least 20 confirmed tornadoes in northern Illinois and Indiana, has elevated preliminary counts and aligned trader sentiment with bins bracketing the 1991–2020 June average of roughly 212. Mid-month model guidance and SPC outlooks indicate mixed steering patterns and instability, with potential for additional discrete supercells but also periods of suppression from ridging or reduced moisture. This genuine forecast uncertainty—typical given rapid shifts in convective available potential energy and shear—explains the tight clustering around 160–249 outcomes, with final resolution hinging on the next 12 days of National Weather Service verification data.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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