With only about 0.5 inches of rain recorded at Central Park through mid-June against a 4.5-inch monthly climatological average, trader consensus has converged on the 3-4 inch bin at 32% implied probability. Dry conditions dominated the first half of the month, with limited frontal passages and weak convective activity. NOAA and local forecasts indicate near-normal temperatures and moderate thunderstorm potential for the remaining 16 days, sufficient to close much of the deficit but not enough for a strong push above 5 inches. The tight spread across bins reflects uncertainty in the timing and intensity of summer convection, typical for the season when precipitation is driven by localized instability rather than organized systems.