Recent KMA and international model guidance for mid-June shows Seoul under transitional early-summer conditions, with daytime maxima most likely reaching the upper 20s Celsius as a strengthening subtropical ridge competes with increasing monsoon moisture and scattered cloud cover. Ensemble spreads center on 28–29 °C for June 16, reflecting modest differences in predicted timing of any light showers and boundary-layer mixing; clearer, drier air would push readings toward 30 °C while thicker cloud or earlier rain would cap them near 27 °C. Historical climatology places average June highs near 26 °C, so current warmth represents a positive anomaly that traders are weighting against the narrow forecast uncertainty range. Updated short-range runs and afternoon observations on June 15 will further refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.