Forecast models from sources including the Met Office, BBC, and AccuWeather indicate Madrid's maximum temperature on June 16 will most likely reach 33°C under high-pressure dominance, clear skies, and light northwesterly winds typical of early summer. This aligns with the market's leading 47.5% implied probability for 33°C, followed by 34°C at 26.5%, reflecting tight clustering around observed recent highs of 32–34°C and stable ensemble guidance with minimal spread. Madrid's inland location amplifies daytime heating, yet no anomalous warm advection or heatwave setup is projected, keeping 35°C+ probabilities low at under 7% combined. Updated model runs in the next 24–48 hours ahead of resolution will determine whether slight upward revisions shift sentiment toward 34°C.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Madrid on June 16?
Highest temperature in Madrid on June 16?
33°C 43%
34°C 27%
32°C 21%
31°C 6%
NUOVO
NUOVO
16 giu 2026
30°C or below
3%
31°C
6%
32°C
21%
33°C
43%
34°C
27%
35°C
6%
36°C
1%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
33°C 43%
34°C 27%
32°C 21%
31°C 6%
NUOVO
NUOVO
16 giu 2026
30°C or below
$143 Vol.
3%
31°C
$152 Vol.
6%
32°C
$243 Vol.
21%
33°C
$337 Vol.
43%
34°C
$194 Vol.
27%
35°C
$66 Vol.
6%
36°C
$52 Vol.
1%
37°C
$72 Vol.
1%
38°C
$132 Vol.
<1%
39°C
$22 Vol.
<1%
40°C or higher
$22 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including the Met Office, BBC, and AccuWeather indicate Madrid's maximum temperature on June 16 will most likely reach 33°C under high-pressure dominance, clear skies, and light northwesterly winds typical of early summer. This aligns with the market's leading 47.5% implied probability for 33°C, followed by 34°C at 26.5%, reflecting tight clustering around observed recent highs of 32–34°C and stable ensemble guidance with minimal spread. Madrid's inland location amplifies daytime heating, yet no anomalous warm advection or heatwave setup is projected, keeping 35°C+ probabilities low at under 7% combined. Updated model runs in the next 24–48 hours ahead of resolution will determine whether slight upward revisions shift sentiment toward 34°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Jun 14, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$1,343Data di fine
16 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 14, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including the Met Office, BBC, and AccuWeather indicate Madrid's maximum temperature on June 16 will most likely reach 33°C under high-pressure dominance, clear skies, and light northwesterly winds typical of early summer. This aligns with the market's leading 47.5% implied probability for 33°C, followed by 34°C at 26.5%, reflecting tight clustering around observed recent highs of 32–34°C and stable ensemble guidance with minimal spread. Madrid's inland location amplifies daytime heating, yet no anomalous warm advection or heatwave setup is projected, keeping 35°C+ probabilities low at under 7% combined. Updated model runs in the next 24–48 hours ahead of resolution will determine whether slight upward revisions shift sentiment toward 34°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,343Data di fine
16 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 14, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources including the Met Office, BBC, and AccuWeather indicate Madrid's maximum temperature on June 16 will most likely reach 33°C under high-pressure dominance, clear skies, and light northwesterly winds typical of early summer. This aligns with the market's leading 47.5% implied probability for 33°C, followed by 34°C at 26.5%, reflecting tight clustering around observed recent highs of 32–34°C and stable ensemble guidance with minimal spread. Madrid's inland location amplifies daytime heating, yet no anomalous warm advection or heatwave setup is projected, keeping 35°C+ probabilities low at under 7% combined. Updated model runs in the next 24–48 hours ahead of resolution will determine whether slight upward revisions shift sentiment toward 34°C.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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