Recent AEMET guidance and ensemble model runs place Madrid’s June 15 maximum near 31–32 °C, producing the tight market split between those outcomes. Subtle differences in predicted Saharan air-mass advection, boundary-layer mixing depth, and afternoon wind speeds will determine whether the Retiro station peaks at the lower or higher end of that narrow range. With no strong synoptic forcing or heat-wave setup in place, forecast uncertainty remains elevated; small revisions in the next 24-hour model cycle or observational updates could readily shift probability between the leading contracts while keeping longer-tail risks low.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Madrid on June 15?
Highest temperature in Madrid on June 15?
32°C 41%
31°C 35%
33°C 11.5%
30°C 5%
NUOVO
$16,883 Vol.
NUOVO
$16,883 Vol.
15 giu 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
5%
31°C
35%
32°C
41%
33°C
11%
34°C
2%
35°C
2%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 41%
31°C 35%
33°C 11.5%
30°C 5%
NUOVO
$16,883 Vol.
NUOVO
$16,883 Vol.
15 giu 2026
27°C or below
$414 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,627 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,968 Vol.
1%
30°C
$2,094 Vol.
5%
31°C
$1,456 Vol.
35%
32°C
$1,955 Vol.
41%
33°C
$2,353 Vol.
11%
34°C
$3,042 Vol.
2%
35°C
$1,677 Vol.
2%
36°C
$333 Vol.
<1%
37°C or higher
$706 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET guidance and ensemble model runs place Madrid’s June 15 maximum near 31–32 °C, producing the tight market split between those outcomes. Subtle differences in predicted Saharan air-mass advection, boundary-layer mixing depth, and afternoon wind speeds will determine whether the Retiro station peaks at the lower or higher end of that narrow range. With no strong synoptic forcing or heat-wave setup in place, forecast uncertainty remains elevated; small revisions in the next 24-hour model cycle or observational updates could readily shift probability between the leading contracts while keeping longer-tail risks low.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Jun 13, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volume
$16,883Data di fine
15 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 13, 2026, 12:10 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET guidance and ensemble model runs place Madrid’s June 15 maximum near 31–32 °C, producing the tight market split between those outcomes. Subtle differences in predicted Saharan air-mass advection, boundary-layer mixing depth, and afternoon wind speeds will determine whether the Retiro station peaks at the lower or higher end of that narrow range. With no strong synoptic forcing or heat-wave setup in place, forecast uncertainty remains elevated; small revisions in the next 24-hour model cycle or observational updates could readily shift probability between the leading contracts while keeping longer-tail risks low.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$16,883Data di fine
15 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 13, 2026, 12:10 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent AEMET guidance and ensemble model runs place Madrid’s June 15 maximum near 31–32 °C, producing the tight market split between those outcomes. Subtle differences in predicted Saharan air-mass advection, boundary-layer mixing depth, and afternoon wind speeds will determine whether the Retiro station peaks at the lower or higher end of that narrow range. With no strong synoptic forcing or heat-wave setup in place, forecast uncertainty remains elevated; small revisions in the next 24-hour model cycle or observational updates could readily shift probability between the leading contracts while keeping longer-tail risks low.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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