Trader consensus centers on the 56–59°F range for Chicago’s August 25 low because ensemble guidance and recent National Weather Service updates point to a cooler-than-climatological air mass arriving ahead of a midweek cold front. Clear skies overnight will enhance radiative cooling under light winds, while northerly flow limits mixing and keeps boundary-layer moisture modest. Normal late-August lows near 64°F serve as the baseline, yet model spreads in the 2–4°F range and potential for slightly stronger advection explain why 58–59°F leads at 38.5% implied probability. Upcoming 00Z and 12Z model cycles plus the next NWS forecast discussion will refine whether temperatures settle near the upper or lower end of that window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa di Chicago il 25 agosto?
La temperatura più bassa di Chicago il 25 agosto?
49°F or below 53%
54-55°F 46%
58-59°F 39%
56-57°F 32%
NUOVO
NUOVO
25 ago 2026
49°F or below
53%
50-51°F
2%
52-53°F
24%
54-55°F
46%
56-57°F
32%
58-59°F
39%
60-61°F
22%
62-63°F
27%
64-65°F
26%
66-67°F
7%
68°F or higher
27%
49°F or below 53%
54-55°F 46%
58-59°F 39%
56-57°F 32%
NUOVO
NUOVO
25 ago 2026
49°F or below
$5 Vol.
53%
50-51°F
$5 Vol.
2%
52-53°F
$130 Vol.
24%
54-55°F
$5 Vol.
46%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
32%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
39%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
22%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
27%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
26%
66-67°F
$125 Vol.
7%
68°F or higher
$5 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus centers on the 56–59°F range for Chicago’s August 25 low because ensemble guidance and recent National Weather Service updates point to a cooler-than-climatological air mass arriving ahead of a midweek cold front. Clear skies overnight will enhance radiative cooling under light winds, while northerly flow limits mixing and keeps boundary-layer moisture modest. Normal late-August lows near 64°F serve as the baseline, yet model spreads in the 2–4°F range and potential for slightly stronger advection explain why 58–59°F leads at 38.5% implied probability. Upcoming 00Z and 12Z model cycles plus the next NWS forecast discussion will refine whether temperatures settle near the upper or lower end of that window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$275Data di fine
25 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus centers on the 56–59°F range for Chicago’s August 25 low because ensemble guidance and recent National Weather Service updates point to a cooler-than-climatological air mass arriving ahead of a midweek cold front. Clear skies overnight will enhance radiative cooling under light winds, while northerly flow limits mixing and keeps boundary-layer moisture modest. Normal late-August lows near 64°F serve as the baseline, yet model spreads in the 2–4°F range and potential for slightly stronger advection explain why 58–59°F leads at 38.5% implied probability. Upcoming 00Z and 12Z model cycles plus the next NWS forecast discussion will refine whether temperatures settle near the upper or lower end of that window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$275Data di fine
25 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus centers on the 56–59°F range for Chicago’s August 25 low because ensemble guidance and recent National Weather Service updates point to a cooler-than-climatological air mass arriving ahead of a midweek cold front. Clear skies overnight will enhance radiative cooling under light winds, while northerly flow limits mixing and keeps boundary-layer moisture modest. Normal late-August lows near 64°F serve as the baseline, yet model spreads in the 2–4°F range and potential for slightly stronger advection explain why 58–59°F leads at 38.5% implied probability. Upcoming 00Z and 12Z model cycles plus the next NWS forecast discussion will refine whether temperatures settle near the upper or lower end of that window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti