Recent short-range forecasts from multiple models, including those aligned with China Meteorological Administration guidance, indicate a minimum near 20°C in Qingdao on September 19 under clear to partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow. Persistent high pressure and warm advection from the south suppress overnight radiative cooling, keeping lows well above seasonal cold extremes while limiting daytime peaks that could indirectly affect the daily minimum. Model consensus shows low variability, with historical September minima averaging around 18–20°C providing context for the expected range. Trader balance between extreme bins (14°C or below versus 24°C or higher) at roughly equal implied probability likely stems from uncertainty in exact nocturnal cooling rates and minor wind or humidity shifts that could nudge the minimum across 1–2°C thresholds, with updated runs expected ahead of the observation window.