Recent official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources indicate a minimum temperature near 24°C in Shanghai on September 18, driven by persistent northeasterly flow, extensive cloud cover, and light rain that limit overnight radiative cooling under a humid subtropical regime. This aligns with model consensus showing overnight lows holding in the 23–24°C range amid typical early-autumn conditions, without strong cold-air advection or clear-sky enhancement. Trader consensus reflected in the 40% implied probability for 24°C and 24% for 23°C captures this narrow uncertainty band, while lower-probability tails account for potential forecast shifts from updated runs or localized variations. New model guidance and China Meteorological Administration briefings in the next 48 hours will refine these market-implied odds ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa a Shanghai il 18 settembre?
La temperatura più bassa a Shanghai il 18 settembre?
19°C o inferiore 40%
25°C 37%
24°C 30%
23°C 29%
NUOVO
NUOVO
18 set 2026
19°C o inferiore
40%
20°C
19%
21°C
22%
22°C
27%
23°C
29%
24°C
41%
25°C
37%
26°C
20%
27°C
15%
28°C
20%
29°C o superiore
25%
19°C o inferiore 40%
25°C 37%
24°C 30%
23°C 29%
NUOVO
NUOVO
18 set 2026
19°C o inferiore
$0 Vol.
40%
20°C
$0 Vol.
19%
21°C
$0 Vol.
22%
22°C
$0 Vol.
27%
23°C
$104 Vol.
29%
24°C
$262 Vol.
41%
25°C
$0 Vol.
37%
26°C
$0 Vol.
20%
27°C
$0 Vol.
15%
28°C
$0 Vol.
20%
29°C o superiore
$0 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources indicate a minimum temperature near 24°C in Shanghai on September 18, driven by persistent northeasterly flow, extensive cloud cover, and light rain that limit overnight radiative cooling under a humid subtropical regime. This aligns with model consensus showing overnight lows holding in the 23–24°C range amid typical early-autumn conditions, without strong cold-air advection or clear-sky enhancement. Trader consensus reflected in the 40% implied probability for 24°C and 24% for 23°C captures this narrow uncertainty band, while lower-probability tails account for potential forecast shifts from updated runs or localized variations. New model guidance and China Meteorological Administration briefings in the next 48 hours will refine these market-implied odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$366Data di fine
18 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources indicate a minimum temperature near 24°C in Shanghai on September 18, driven by persistent northeasterly flow, extensive cloud cover, and light rain that limit overnight radiative cooling under a humid subtropical regime. This aligns with model consensus showing overnight lows holding in the 23–24°C range amid typical early-autumn conditions, without strong cold-air advection or clear-sky enhancement. Trader consensus reflected in the 40% implied probability for 24°C and 24% for 23°C captures this narrow uncertainty band, while lower-probability tails account for potential forecast shifts from updated runs or localized variations. New model guidance and China Meteorological Administration briefings in the next 48 hours will refine these market-implied odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$366Data di fine
18 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources indicate a minimum temperature near 24°C in Shanghai on September 18, driven by persistent northeasterly flow, extensive cloud cover, and light rain that limit overnight radiative cooling under a humid subtropical regime. This aligns with model consensus showing overnight lows holding in the 23–24°C range amid typical early-autumn conditions, without strong cold-air advection or clear-sky enhancement. Trader consensus reflected in the 40% implied probability for 24°C and 24% for 23°C captures this narrow uncertainty band, while lower-probability tails account for potential forecast shifts from updated runs or localized variations. New model guidance and China Meteorological Administration briefings in the next 48 hours will refine these market-implied odds ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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