**Recent forecasts from multiple models and agencies converge on an overnight low of 25–27°C for Shanghai on September 4, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s heavy weighting toward 26°C (32.5%) and 27°C (50.5%).** Persistent northeasterly flow, high dew points near 24°C, and widespread cloud cover are moderating radiative cooling and keeping minimum temperatures from falling further. Preceding days of light rain and overcast conditions have maintained elevated boundary-layer moisture, limiting the diurnal temperature range and supporting the current consensus. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with most runs clustering in the 25–27°C band under stable subtropical high pressure and no approaching cold fronts or tropical systems. Historical September climatology for the region places typical overnight lows in the mid-20s°C, providing additional context for why traders assign low probability to outcomes below 24°C or above 28°C. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalysts for any shifts in implied probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa a Shanghai il 4 settembre?
La temperatura più bassa a Shanghai il 4 settembre?
27°C 51%
26°C 33%
28°C 21%
25°C 9%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 set 2026
21°C o inferiore
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
5%
25°C
9%
26°C
33%
27°C
53%
28°C
21%
29°C
7%
30°C
1%
31°C o superiore
<1%
27°C 51%
26°C 33%
28°C 21%
25°C 9%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 set 2026
21°C o inferiore
$30 Vol.
1%
22°C
$20 Vol.
1%
23°C
$20 Vol.
1%
24°C
$75 Vol.
5%
25°C
$217 Vol.
9%
26°C
$376 Vol.
33%
27°C
$664 Vol.
53%
28°C
$0 Vol.
21%
29°C
$0 Vol.
7%
30°C
$94 Vol.
1%
31°C o superiore
$40 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from multiple models and agencies converge on an overnight low of 25–27°C for Shanghai on September 4, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s heavy weighting toward 26°C (32.5%) and 27°C (50.5%).** Persistent northeasterly flow, high dew points near 24°C, and widespread cloud cover are moderating radiative cooling and keeping minimum temperatures from falling further. Preceding days of light rain and overcast conditions have maintained elevated boundary-layer moisture, limiting the diurnal temperature range and supporting the current consensus.
Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with most runs clustering in the 25–27°C band under stable subtropical high pressure and no approaching cold fronts or tropical systems. Historical September climatology for the region places typical overnight lows in the mid-20s°C, providing additional context for why traders assign low probability to outcomes below 24°C or above 28°C. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalysts for any shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,538Data di fine
4 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from multiple models and agencies converge on an overnight low of 25–27°C for Shanghai on September 4, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s heavy weighting toward 26°C (32.5%) and 27°C (50.5%).** Persistent northeasterly flow, high dew points near 24°C, and widespread cloud cover are moderating radiative cooling and keeping minimum temperatures from falling further. Preceding days of light rain and overcast conditions have maintained elevated boundary-layer moisture, limiting the diurnal temperature range and supporting the current consensus.
Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with most runs clustering in the 25–27°C band under stable subtropical high pressure and no approaching cold fronts or tropical systems. Historical September climatology for the region places typical overnight lows in the mid-20s°C, providing additional context for why traders assign low probability to outcomes below 24°C or above 28°C. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalysts for any shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,538Data di fine
4 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecasts from multiple models and agencies converge on an overnight low of 25–27°C for Shanghai on September 4, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s heavy weighting toward 26°C (32.5%) and 27°C (50.5%).** Persistent northeasterly flow, high dew points near 24°C, and widespread cloud cover are moderating radiative cooling and keeping minimum temperatures from falling further. Preceding days of light rain and overcast conditions have maintained elevated boundary-layer moisture, limiting the diurnal temperature range and supporting the current consensus. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with most runs clustering in the 25–27°C band under stable subtropical high pressure and no approaching cold fronts or tropical systems. Historical September climatology for the region places typical overnight lows in the mid-20s°C, providing additional context for why traders assign low probability to outcomes below 24°C or above 28°C. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalysts for any shifts in implied probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti