Russia's political system under President Vladimir Putin has shown no signs of an organized coup attempt through mid-August 2026, supporting trader consensus on low probability. Security measures tightened earlier in the year amid European intelligence reports of elite concerns and potential plots, yet these produced no verified challenges or shifts in military loyalty. Ongoing Ukraine operations continue to occupy security services and elites, while historical patterns of regime consolidation limit openings for internal revolt. Scheduled events like policy directives on NATO and EU influence further indicate centralized decision-making rather than fragmentation. Traders price in this sustained stability, viewing a successful bid as improbable absent major new catalysts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato7% probabilità
$124,905 Vol.
$124,905 Vol.
31 dic 2026
7% probabilità
$124,905 Vol.
$124,905 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's political system under President Vladimir Putin has shown no signs of an organized coup attempt through mid-August 2026, supporting trader consensus on low probability. Security measures tightened earlier in the year amid European intelligence reports of elite concerns and potential plots, yet these produced no verified challenges or shifts in military loyalty. Ongoing Ukraine operations continue to occupy security services and elites, while historical patterns of regime consolidation limit openings for internal revolt. Scheduled events like policy directives on NATO and EU influence further indicate centralized decision-making rather than fragmentation. Traders price in this sustained stability, viewing a successful bid as improbable absent major new catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volume
$124,905Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's political system under President Vladimir Putin has shown no signs of an organized coup attempt through mid-August 2026, supporting trader consensus on low probability. Security measures tightened earlier in the year amid European intelligence reports of elite concerns and potential plots, yet these produced no verified challenges or shifts in military loyalty. Ongoing Ukraine operations continue to occupy security services and elites, while historical patterns of regime consolidation limit openings for internal revolt. Scheduled events like policy directives on NATO and EU influence further indicate centralized decision-making rather than fragmentation. Traders price in this sustained stability, viewing a successful bid as improbable absent major new catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$124,905Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's political system under President Vladimir Putin has shown no signs of an organized coup attempt through mid-August 2026, supporting trader consensus on low probability. Security measures tightened earlier in the year amid European intelligence reports of elite concerns and potential plots, yet these produced no verified challenges or shifts in military loyalty. Ongoing Ukraine operations continue to occupy security services and elites, while historical patterns of regime consolidation limit openings for internal revolt. Scheduled events like policy directives on NATO and EU influence further indicate centralized decision-making rather than fragmentation. Traders price in this sustained stability, viewing a successful bid as improbable absent major new catalysts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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