Putin maintains firm control over Russia's security apparatus and political institutions despite strains from the Ukraine conflict, including reports of tightened personal protections and bunker operations amid spring 2026 coup and assassination rumors tied to figures like Sergei Shoigu. No organized challenges or attempts have materialized, with state pollster approval ratings holding near 67 percent and opposition voices suppressed. Analysts note underlying elite restlessness and economic pressures but cite the absence of viable precursors or military fractures since the 2023 Prigozhin episode. Traders price the low odds of an attempt before year-end given the Kremlin's layered defenses and historical pattern of regime resilience.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato7% probabilità
$124,910 Vol.
$124,910 Vol.
31 dic 2026
7% probabilità
$124,910 Vol.
$124,910 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin maintains firm control over Russia's security apparatus and political institutions despite strains from the Ukraine conflict, including reports of tightened personal protections and bunker operations amid spring 2026 coup and assassination rumors tied to figures like Sergei Shoigu. No organized challenges or attempts have materialized, with state pollster approval ratings holding near 67 percent and opposition voices suppressed. Analysts note underlying elite restlessness and economic pressures but cite the absence of viable precursors or military fractures since the 2023 Prigozhin episode. Traders price the low odds of an attempt before year-end given the Kremlin's layered defenses and historical pattern of regime resilience.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volume
$124,910Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin maintains firm control over Russia's security apparatus and political institutions despite strains from the Ukraine conflict, including reports of tightened personal protections and bunker operations amid spring 2026 coup and assassination rumors tied to figures like Sergei Shoigu. No organized challenges or attempts have materialized, with state pollster approval ratings holding near 67 percent and opposition voices suppressed. Analysts note underlying elite restlessness and economic pressures but cite the absence of viable precursors or military fractures since the 2023 Prigozhin episode. Traders price the low odds of an attempt before year-end given the Kremlin's layered defenses and historical pattern of regime resilience.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$124,910Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Putin maintains firm control over Russia's security apparatus and political institutions despite strains from the Ukraine conflict, including reports of tightened personal protections and bunker operations amid spring 2026 coup and assassination rumors tied to figures like Sergei Shoigu. No organized challenges or attempts have materialized, with state pollster approval ratings holding near 67 percent and opposition voices suppressed. Analysts note underlying elite restlessness and economic pressures but cite the absence of viable precursors or military fractures since the 2023 Prigozhin episode. Traders price the low odds of an attempt before year-end given the Kremlin's layered defenses and historical pattern of regime resilience.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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