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Politica·USA X Iran

Accordo USA-Iran firmato fisicamente da...?

icon for Accordo USA-Iran firmato fisicamente da...?
Politica·USA X Iran

Accordo USA-Iran firmato fisicamente da...?

NUOVO
19 giu 2026
Polymarket

$4,860 Vol.

Polymarket

19 giugno

$2,007 Vol.

77%

30 giugno

$2,860 Vol.

84%

On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States and Iran both physically sign the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14 by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement. “Physically signs” means that the authorized representatives personally sign the agreement by hand, including by signing a physical copy of the agreement or another signature page that forms part of the agreement. Electronic or digital signatures will not qualify. An agreement which was previously executed through electronic signature may still be physically signed. The agreement must be physically signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **Recent developments center on a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding reached around June 14–15, 2026, following months of conflict and mediation by Pakistan and Qatar.** The framework extends a ceasefire by 60 days, reopens the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, ends hostilities including in Lebanon, and launches technical talks on Iran’s nuclear program, uranium enrichment limits, and highly enriched uranium stockpiles in exchange for potential sanctions relief and access to frozen assets. A formal physical signing ceremony is scheduled for June 19 in Geneva, though some virtual signatures have already occurred and the full text remains unpublished with certain terms still disputed by the parties. Nuclear negotiations and compliance monitoring will follow over the subsequent 60-day window, with any final permanent agreement dependent on those outcomes. Trader consensus reflects the near-term ceremony as the primary catalyst while accounting for possible delays or adjustments to the timeline.

On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States and Iran both physically sign the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14 by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement.

“Physically signs” means that the authorized representatives personally sign the agreement by hand, including by signing a physical copy of the agreement or another signature page that forms part of the agreement. Electronic or digital signatures will not qualify. An agreement which was previously executed through electronic signature may still be physically signed.

The agreement must be physically signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,860
Data di fine
30 giu 2026
Mercato aperto
Jun 16, 2026, 11:52 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States and Iran both physically sign the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14 by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement. “Physically signs” means that the authorized representatives personally sign the agreement by hand, including by signing a physical copy of the agreement or another signature page that forms part of the agreement. Electronic or digital signatures will not qualify. An agreement which was previously executed through electronic signature may still be physically signed. The agreement must be physically signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States and Iran both physically sign the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14 by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement. “Physically signs” means that the authorized representatives personally sign the agreement by hand, including by signing a physical copy of the agreement or another signature page that forms part of the agreement. Electronic or digital signatures will not qualify. An agreement which was previously executed through electronic signature may still be physically signed. The agreement must be physically signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **Recent developments center on a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding reached around June 14–15, 2026, following months of conflict and mediation by Pakistan and Qatar.** The framework extends a ceasefire by 60 days, reopens the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, ends hostilities including in Lebanon, and launches technical talks on Iran’s nuclear program, uranium enrichment limits, and highly enriched uranium stockpiles in exchange for potential sanctions relief and access to frozen assets. A formal physical signing ceremony is scheduled for June 19 in Geneva, though some virtual signatures have already occurred and the full text remains unpublished with certain terms still disputed by the parties. Nuclear negotiations and compliance monitoring will follow over the subsequent 60-day window, with any final permanent agreement dependent on those outcomes. Trader consensus reflects the near-term ceremony as the primary catalyst while accounting for possible delays or adjustments to the timeline.

On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States and Iran both physically sign the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14 by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement.

“Physically signs” means that the authorized representatives personally sign the agreement by hand, including by signing a physical copy of the agreement or another signature page that forms part of the agreement. Electronic or digital signatures will not qualify. An agreement which was previously executed through electronic signature may still be physically signed.

The agreement must be physically signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,860
Data di fine
30 giu 2026
Mercato aperto
Jun 16, 2026, 11:52 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States and Iran both physically sign the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14 by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement. “Physically signs” means that the authorized representatives personally sign the agreement by hand, including by signing a physical copy of the agreement or another signature page that forms part of the agreement. Electronic or digital signatures will not qualify. An agreement which was previously executed through electronic signature may still be physically signed. The agreement must be physically signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Domande frequenti

"Accordo USA-Iran firmato fisicamente da...?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 2 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "30 giugno" a 84%, seguito da "19 giugno" a 77%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 84¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 84% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"Accordo USA-Iran firmato fisicamente da...?" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Jun 16, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "Accordo USA-Iran firmato fisicamente da...?", esplora i 2 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Accordo USA-Iran firmato fisicamente da...?" è "30 giugno" a 84%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 84% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "19 giugno" a 77%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Accordo USA-Iran firmato fisicamente da...?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.