The U.S. decision at the July 1, 2026 USMCA Free Trade Commission joint review not to confirm renewal in its current form has anchored trader expectations against extension this year. USTR Ambassador Greer stated the United States would not agree to a 16-year extension, triggering the annual review process under Article 34.7 while leaving the agreement in force until potential expiration in 2036. Mexico and Canada expressed support for straightforward renewal, but U.S. priorities on automotive rules of origin, labor enforcement, supply-chain alignment with China policy, and tariff leverage have shifted the process toward bilateral negotiations rather than automatic extension. Ongoing talks, including U.S.-Mexico rounds in July, show no near-term consensus on terms that would satisfy all parties before year-end, reinforcing the market's assessment of low probability for 2026 extension.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
21% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
Sì
21% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The U.S. decision at the July 1, 2026 USMCA Free Trade Commission joint review not to confirm renewal in its current form has anchored trader expectations against extension this year. USTR Ambassador Greer stated the United States would not agree to a 16-year extension, triggering the annual review process under Article 34.7 while leaving the agreement in force until potential expiration in 2036. Mexico and Canada expressed support for straightforward renewal, but U.S. priorities on automotive rules of origin, labor enforcement, supply-chain alignment with China policy, and tariff leverage have shifted the process toward bilateral negotiations rather than automatic extension. Ongoing talks, including U.S.-Mexico rounds in July, show no near-term consensus on terms that would satisfy all parties before year-end, reinforcing the market's assessment of low probability for 2026 extension.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$9,919Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The U.S. decision at the July 1, 2026 USMCA Free Trade Commission joint review not to confirm renewal in its current form has anchored trader expectations against extension this year. USTR Ambassador Greer stated the United States would not agree to a 16-year extension, triggering the annual review process under Article 34.7 while leaving the agreement in force until potential expiration in 2036. Mexico and Canada expressed support for straightforward renewal, but U.S. priorities on automotive rules of origin, labor enforcement, supply-chain alignment with China policy, and tariff leverage have shifted the process toward bilateral negotiations rather than automatic extension. Ongoing talks, including U.S.-Mexico rounds in July, show no near-term consensus on terms that would satisfy all parties before year-end, reinforcing the market's assessment of low probability for 2026 extension.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,919Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. decision at the July 1, 2026 USMCA Free Trade Commission joint review not to confirm renewal in its current form has anchored trader expectations against extension this year. USTR Ambassador Greer stated the United States would not agree to a 16-year extension, triggering the annual review process under Article 34.7 while leaving the agreement in force until potential expiration in 2036. Mexico and Canada expressed support for straightforward renewal, but U.S. priorities on automotive rules of origin, labor enforcement, supply-chain alignment with China policy, and tariff leverage have shifted the process toward bilateral negotiations rather than automatic extension. Ongoing talks, including U.S.-Mexico rounds in July, show no near-term consensus on terms that would satisfy all parties before year-end, reinforcing the market's assessment of low probability for 2026 extension.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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