Recent polling from May shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding first-round support near 39 percent, with Flávio Bolsonaro close behind at 33 to 37 percent and other right-wing figures including Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema dividing the remaining votes. This fragmented field, following Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement of his son for the Liberal Party, keeps any single candidate well below the 50 percent threshold required for an outright victory on October 4. Traders therefore assign an 86 percent probability to a second-round runoff, consistent with Brazil’s electoral history in polarized contests where multiple viable contenders prevent majority consolidation in the initial vote.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$65,530 Vol.
$65,530 Vol.
4 ott 2026
Sì
$65,530 Vol.
$65,530 Vol.
4 ott 2026
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from May shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding first-round support near 39 percent, with Flávio Bolsonaro close behind at 33 to 37 percent and other right-wing figures including Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema dividing the remaining votes. This fragmented field, following Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement of his son for the Liberal Party, keeps any single candidate well below the 50 percent threshold required for an outright victory on October 4. Traders therefore assign an 86 percent probability to a second-round runoff, consistent with Brazil’s electoral history in polarized contests where multiple viable contenders prevent majority consolidation in the initial vote.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercato aperto: Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$65,530Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from May shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding first-round support near 39 percent, with Flávio Bolsonaro close behind at 33 to 37 percent and other right-wing figures including Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema dividing the remaining votes. This fragmented field, following Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement of his son for the Liberal Party, keeps any single candidate well below the 50 percent threshold required for an outright victory on October 4. Traders therefore assign an 86 percent probability to a second-round runoff, consistent with Brazil’s electoral history in polarized contests where multiple viable contenders prevent majority consolidation in the initial vote.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$65,530Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling from May shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding first-round support near 39 percent, with Flávio Bolsonaro close behind at 33 to 37 percent and other right-wing figures including Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema dividing the remaining votes. This fragmented field, following Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement of his son for the Liberal Party, keeps any single candidate well below the 50 percent threshold required for an outright victory on October 4. Traders therefore assign an 86 percent probability to a second-round runoff, consistent with Brazil’s electoral history in polarized contests where multiple viable contenders prevent majority consolidation in the initial vote.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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