**France's fragmented parliament and fragile minority government under Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu continue to complicate timely budget approval, with the 2027 finance bill now the focus ahead of the April 2027 presidential election.** High public debt near €3.5 trillion and a deficit hovering around 5% of GDP have intensified pressure for consolidation, yet repeated past delays—including the 2026 budget's passage only in early February 2026 after months of stalemate and no-confidence threats—highlight structural hurdles. Recent developments show the government preparing modest deficit targets (around 4.9%) and spending caps for 2027 while navigating opposition resistance and electoral posturing, which reduces incentives for swift cross-party deals. Market-implied odds favoring "No" at 69.5% reflect trader consensus on these persistent dynamics: a divided National Assembly often requires special procedures or emergency rollovers, and proximity to the election cycle typically amplifies brinkmanship over fiscal restraint. Key near-term catalysts include autumn parliamentary debates and any further shifts in coalition support or economic data releases that could alter urgency.