No earthquake of magnitude 10.0 or greater has ever been recorded, with the 1960 Valdivia event at 9.5 marking the observed maximum on the moment magnitude scale. Subduction zone fault physics, rupture area limits, and slip constraints cap realistic tectonic events near 9.6–9.7 according to USGS models and geological analysis, rendering a 10.0 event physically implausible without external triggers like massive asteroid impacts. With only months remaining until the December 31, 2026 resolution and continuous global seismic monitoring showing no activity near this threshold, trader consensus reflects these geophysical barriers. An unexpected multi-segment rupture or unprecedented measurement revision could theoretically alter outcomes, though both remain outside established scientific parameters.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
1% 確率
$808,357 Vol.
$808,357 Vol.
2026/12/30
はい
1% 確率
$808,357 Vol.
$808,357 Vol.
2026/12/30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.No earthquake of magnitude 10.0 or greater has ever been recorded, with the 1960 Valdivia event at 9.5 marking the observed maximum on the moment magnitude scale. Subduction zone fault physics, rupture area limits, and slip constraints cap realistic tectonic events near 9.6–9.7 according to USGS models and geological analysis, rendering a 10.0 event physically implausible without external triggers like massive asteroid impacts. With only months remaining until the December 31, 2026 resolution and continuous global seismic monitoring showing no activity near this threshold, trader consensus reflects these geophysical barriers. An unexpected multi-segment rupture or unprecedented measurement revision could theoretically alter outcomes, though both remain outside established scientific parameters.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
マーケット開始日： Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
音量
$808,357終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.No earthquake of magnitude 10.0 or greater has ever been recorded, with the 1960 Valdivia event at 9.5 marking the observed maximum on the moment magnitude scale. Subduction zone fault physics, rupture area limits, and slip constraints cap realistic tectonic events near 9.6–9.7 according to USGS models and geological analysis, rendering a 10.0 event physically implausible without external triggers like massive asteroid impacts. With only months remaining until the December 31, 2026 resolution and continuous global seismic monitoring showing no activity near this threshold, trader consensus reflects these geophysical barriers. An unexpected multi-segment rupture or unprecedented measurement revision could theoretically alter outcomes, though both remain outside established scientific parameters.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
音量
$808,357終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No earthquake of magnitude 10.0 or greater has ever been recorded, with the 1960 Valdivia event at 9.5 marking the observed maximum on the moment magnitude scale. Subduction zone fault physics, rupture area limits, and slip constraints cap realistic tectonic events near 9.6–9.7 according to USGS models and geological analysis, rendering a 10.0 event physically implausible without external triggers like massive asteroid impacts. With only months remaining until the December 31, 2026 resolution and continuous global seismic monitoring showing no activity near this threshold, trader consensus reflects these geophysical barriers. An unexpected multi-segment rupture or unprecedented measurement revision could theoretically alter outcomes, though both remain outside established scientific parameters.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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