Recent floor crossings by opposition MPs have strengthened Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal minority government following the 2025 federal election. Since November 2025, four Conservatives—Chris d’Entremont, Michael Ma, Matt Jeneroux, and Marilyn Gladu—plus one NDP member, Lori Idlout, have joined the Liberal caucus, citing alignment with Carney’s economic priorities and a preference for stable governance. These shifts, combined with April 2026 by-elections, positioned the Liberals near or at a majority. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has condemned the moves as undermining voter intent, while public opinion remains divided. Traders monitor ongoing caucus stability, potential further defections, and any scheduled parliamentary sessions or leadership reviews that could influence additional switches before the next general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
2026/06/30
May 31
16%
$1,868 Vol.
May 31
$255 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent floor crossings by opposition MPs have strengthened Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal minority government following the 2025 federal election. Since November 2025, four Conservatives—Chris d’Entremont, Michael Ma, Matt Jeneroux, and Marilyn Gladu—plus one NDP member, Lori Idlout, have joined the Liberal caucus, citing alignment with Carney’s economic priorities and a preference for stable governance. These shifts, combined with April 2026 by-elections, positioned the Liberals near or at a majority. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has condemned the moves as undermining voter intent, while public opinion remains divided. Traders monitor ongoing caucus stability, potential further defections, and any scheduled parliamentary sessions or leadership reviews that could influence additional switches before the next general election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
音量
$1,868終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent floor crossings by opposition MPs have strengthened Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal minority government following the 2025 federal election. Since November 2025, four Conservatives—Chris d’Entremont, Michael Ma, Matt Jeneroux, and Marilyn Gladu—plus one NDP member, Lori Idlout, have joined the Liberal caucus, citing alignment with Carney’s economic priorities and a preference for stable governance. These shifts, combined with April 2026 by-elections, positioned the Liberals near or at a majority. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has condemned the moves as undermining voter intent, while public opinion remains divided. Traders monitor ongoing caucus stability, potential further defections, and any scheduled parliamentary sessions or leadership reviews that could influence additional switches before the next general election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$1,868終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent floor crossings by opposition MPs have strengthened Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal minority government following the 2025 federal election. Since November 2025, four Conservatives—Chris d’Entremont, Michael Ma, Matt Jeneroux, and Marilyn Gladu—plus one NDP member, Lori Idlout, have joined the Liberal caucus, citing alignment with Carney’s economic priorities and a preference for stable governance. These shifts, combined with April 2026 by-elections, positioned the Liberals near or at a majority. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has condemned the moves as undermining voter intent, while public opinion remains divided. Traders monitor ongoing caucus stability, potential further defections, and any scheduled parliamentary sessions or leadership reviews that could influence additional switches before the next general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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