Houthi threats and the July 2026 maritime blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels remain the dominant driver behind trader consensus for subdued Bab el-Mandeb transits. Shipping data from Kpler and others show daily commodity-vessel crossings stabilizing near 24–25 in early-to-mid August, down roughly 24% from pre-blockade weekly averages of around 350 transits and well below pre-2023 norms, as operators reroute tankers, absorb elevated insurance premiums, and avoid risk. This environment sustains the 44.8% implied probability on fewer than 25 ships daily by month-end, with the 25–29 bucket at 26.5% reflecting limited near-term catalysts for recovery absent de-escalation. Market-implied odds embed the wisdom of crowds pricing persistent geopolitical friction against historical base rates for rapid normalization.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日25未満 44.8%
25〜29 27%
30～34 21%
35～39 6%
$15,089 Vol.
$15,089 Vol.
2026/08/31
25未満
45%
25〜29
27%
30～34
21%
35～39
6%
40以上
2%
25未満 44.8%
25〜29 27%
30～34 21%
35～39 6%
$15,089 Vol.
$15,089 Vol.
2026/08/31
25未満
$2,915 Vol.
45%
25〜29
$3,518 Vol.
27%
30～34
$3,754 Vol.
21%
35～39
$1,163 Vol.
6%
40以上
$3,738 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Houthi threats and the July 2026 maritime blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels remain the dominant driver behind trader consensus for subdued Bab el-Mandeb transits. Shipping data from Kpler and others show daily commodity-vessel crossings stabilizing near 24–25 in early-to-mid August, down roughly 24% from pre-blockade weekly averages of around 350 transits and well below pre-2023 norms, as operators reroute tankers, absorb elevated insurance premiums, and avoid risk. This environment sustains the 44.8% implied probability on fewer than 25 ships daily by month-end, with the 25–29 bucket at 26.5% reflecting limited near-term catalysts for recovery absent de-escalation. Market-implied odds embed the wisdom of crowds pricing persistent geopolitical friction against historical base rates for rapid normalization.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
マーケット開始日： Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
音量
$15,089終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET結算ソース
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Houthi threats and the July 2026 maritime blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels remain the dominant driver behind trader consensus for subdued Bab el-Mandeb transits. Shipping data from Kpler and others show daily commodity-vessel crossings stabilizing near 24–25 in early-to-mid August, down roughly 24% from pre-blockade weekly averages of around 350 transits and well below pre-2023 norms, as operators reroute tankers, absorb elevated insurance premiums, and avoid risk. This environment sustains the 44.8% implied probability on fewer than 25 ships daily by month-end, with the 25–29 bucket at 26.5% reflecting limited near-term catalysts for recovery absent de-escalation. Market-implied odds embed the wisdom of crowds pricing persistent geopolitical friction against historical base rates for rapid normalization.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
音量
$15,089終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET結算ソース
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...Houthi threats and the July 2026 maritime blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels remain the dominant driver behind trader consensus for subdued Bab el-Mandeb transits. Shipping data from Kpler and others show daily commodity-vessel crossings stabilizing near 24–25 in early-to-mid August, down roughly 24% from pre-blockade weekly averages of around 350 transits and well below pre-2023 norms, as operators reroute tankers, absorb elevated insurance premiums, and avoid risk. This environment sustains the 44.8% implied probability on fewer than 25 ships daily by month-end, with the 25–29 bucket at 26.5% reflecting limited near-term catalysts for recovery absent de-escalation. Market-implied odds embed the wisdom of crowds pricing persistent geopolitical friction against historical base rates for rapid normalization.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問