The open seat in Arizona’s 5th congressional district, created by incumbent Republican Andy Biggs’s retirement to run for governor, has driven Republican traders to assign an 81.5 percent probability of victory. The district’s R+10 partisan voting index and prior Republican margins above 20 points create a narrow path for Democrats, whose primary field has not yet produced a candidate with statewide visibility or substantial fundraising. On the Republican side, former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb maintains a commanding lead in primary polling and has secured key endorsements, including from President Trump, consolidating support ahead of the July 21 primary. This combination of structural advantage and unified early party momentum explains the current market pricing, with resolution set for the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
82%
民主党
14%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$6,061 Vol.
82%
民主党
$2,989 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in Arizona’s 5th congressional district, created by incumbent Republican Andy Biggs’s retirement to run for governor, has driven Republican traders to assign an 81.5 percent probability of victory. The district’s R+10 partisan voting index and prior Republican margins above 20 points create a narrow path for Democrats, whose primary field has not yet produced a candidate with statewide visibility or substantial fundraising. On the Republican side, former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb maintains a commanding lead in primary polling and has secured key endorsements, including from President Trump, consolidating support ahead of the July 21 primary. This combination of structural advantage and unified early party momentum explains the current market pricing, with resolution set for the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$9,050終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in Arizona’s 5th congressional district, created by incumbent Republican Andy Biggs’s retirement to run for governor, has driven Republican traders to assign an 81.5 percent probability of victory. The district’s R+10 partisan voting index and prior Republican margins above 20 points create a narrow path for Democrats, whose primary field has not yet produced a candidate with statewide visibility or substantial fundraising. On the Republican side, former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb maintains a commanding lead in primary polling and has secured key endorsements, including from President Trump, consolidating support ahead of the July 21 primary. This combination of structural advantage and unified early party momentum explains the current market pricing, with resolution set for the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$9,050終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open seat in Arizona’s 5th congressional district, created by incumbent Republican Andy Biggs’s retirement to run for governor, has driven Republican traders to assign an 81.5 percent probability of victory. The district’s R+10 partisan voting index and prior Republican margins above 20 points create a narrow path for Democrats, whose primary field has not yet produced a candidate with statewide visibility or substantial fundraising. On the Republican side, former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb maintains a commanding lead in primary polling and has secured key endorsements, including from President Trump, consolidating support ahead of the July 21 primary. This combination of structural advantage and unified early party momentum explains the current market pricing, with resolution set for the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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