**Traders see little chance of a full-scale military clash between China and Taiwan before 2027 given the short remaining window in 2026 and the pattern of sustained gray-zone pressure rather than kinetic escalation.** China continues daily military aircraft and naval activity around Taiwan, including coast guard patrols east of the island and exercises emphasizing blockade or quarantine scenarios, while Taiwan responds with its own drills, drone integration, precision-strike tests, and a record defense budget. Assessments from Taiwan’s defense ministry note that the PLA still lacks sufficient amphibious and sustainment capacity for a major invasion. Diplomatic channels remain active ahead of the scheduled Trump-Xi summit, with reduced aerial incursions this year compared with prior periods and a Taiwanese cabinet-level visit to the mainland for APEC. These factors support the current 94% implied probability on no clash.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
6% 確率
$3,425,142 Vol.
$3,425,142 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
6% 確率
$3,425,142 Vol.
$3,425,142 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Traders see little chance of a full-scale military clash between China and Taiwan before 2027 given the short remaining window in 2026 and the pattern of sustained gray-zone pressure rather than kinetic escalation.** China continues daily military aircraft and naval activity around Taiwan, including coast guard patrols east of the island and exercises emphasizing blockade or quarantine scenarios, while Taiwan responds with its own drills, drone integration, precision-strike tests, and a record defense budget. Assessments from Taiwan’s defense ministry note that the PLA still lacks sufficient amphibious and sustainment capacity for a major invasion. Diplomatic channels remain active ahead of the scheduled Trump-Xi summit, with reduced aerial incursions this year compared with prior periods and a Taiwanese cabinet-level visit to the mainland for APEC. These factors support the current 94% implied probability on no clash.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
音量
$3,425,142終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Traders see little chance of a full-scale military clash between China and Taiwan before 2027 given the short remaining window in 2026 and the pattern of sustained gray-zone pressure rather than kinetic escalation.** China continues daily military aircraft and naval activity around Taiwan, including coast guard patrols east of the island and exercises emphasizing blockade or quarantine scenarios, while Taiwan responds with its own drills, drone integration, precision-strike tests, and a record defense budget. Assessments from Taiwan’s defense ministry note that the PLA still lacks sufficient amphibious and sustainment capacity for a major invasion. Diplomatic channels remain active ahead of the scheduled Trump-Xi summit, with reduced aerial incursions this year compared with prior periods and a Taiwanese cabinet-level visit to the mainland for APEC. These factors support the current 94% implied probability on no clash.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$3,425,142終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**Traders see little chance of a full-scale military clash between China and Taiwan before 2027 given the short remaining window in 2026 and the pattern of sustained gray-zone pressure rather than kinetic escalation.** China continues daily military aircraft and naval activity around Taiwan, including coast guard patrols east of the island and exercises emphasizing blockade or quarantine scenarios, while Taiwan responds with its own drills, drone integration, precision-strike tests, and a record defense budget. Assessments from Taiwan’s defense ministry note that the PLA still lacks sufficient amphibious and sustainment capacity for a major invasion. Diplomatic channels remain active ahead of the scheduled Trump-Xi summit, with reduced aerial incursions this year compared with prior periods and a Taiwanese cabinet-level visit to the mainland for APEC. These factors support the current 94% implied probability on no clash.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問