**Deep Fission’s revised IPO terms are the dominant driver behind the 63% probability traders assign to a closing market cap below $1.25 billion.** On May 20, 2026, the Berkeley-based developer of underground small modular reactors (SMRs) filed to raise up to $156 million by selling 6 million shares at $24–$26, implying a roughly $1.6–1.7 billion fully diluted valuation on Nasdaq under ticker FISN. Within weeks, the deal was sharply downsized to 2.5 million shares at $16–$18, cutting expected proceeds by about 72% and targeting a midpoint market cap near $1.1 billion. This reduction aligns with the company’s pre-revenue status, ongoing development of its Gravity Nuclear Reactor (a 15 MWe pressurized-water design placed in a one-mile borehole), and the absence of firm revenue or operating reactors. Selection for the Department of Energy’s Reactor Pilot Program and site work in Kansas provide some positive backdrop, but the compressed timeline and lack of demonstrated commercial milestones have tempered enthusiasm. The 10.4% chance assigned to no IPO before August 2026 reflects earlier delays around the original late-May pricing window. Traders appear to view the lower revised range as the most credible outcome given current market conditions for speculative nuclear and AI-power plays, with limited probability mass shifting into higher valuation buckets.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日<$1.25B 63.0%
$1.25B–$1.5B 14.0%
No IPO before August 2026 10.4%
$1.5B–$1.75B 6%
$20,163 Vol.
$20,163 Vol.
2026/05/29
<$1.25B
63%
$1.25B–$1.5B
22%
$1.5B–$1.75B
6%
$1.75B–$2.0B
4%
$2.0B–$2.5B
1%
$2.5B–$3.0B
3%
$3.0B+
2%
No IPO before August 2026
10%
<$1.25B 63.0%
$1.25B–$1.5B 14.0%
No IPO before August 2026 10.4%
$1.5B–$1.75B 6%
$20,163 Vol.
$20,163 Vol.
2026/05/29
<$1.25B
$1,419 Vol.
63%
$1.25B–$1.5B
$897 Vol.
22%
$1.5B–$1.75B
$9,690 Vol.
6%
$1.75B–$2.0B
$4,402 Vol.
4%
$2.0B–$2.5B
$845 Vol.
1%
$2.5B–$3.0B
$649 Vol.
3%
$3.0B+
$764 Vol.
2%
No IPO before August 2026
$1,497 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve based on Deep Fission's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 29 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before August 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.**Deep Fission’s revised IPO terms are the dominant driver behind the 63% probability traders assign to a closing market cap below $1.25 billion.** On May 20, 2026, the Berkeley-based developer of underground small modular reactors (SMRs) filed to raise up to $156 million by selling 6 million shares at $24–$26, implying a roughly $1.6–1.7 billion fully diluted valuation on Nasdaq under ticker FISN. Within weeks, the deal was sharply downsized to 2.5 million shares at $16–$18, cutting expected proceeds by about 72% and targeting a midpoint market cap near $1.1 billion.
This reduction aligns with the company’s pre-revenue status, ongoing development of its Gravity Nuclear Reactor (a 15 MWe pressurized-water design placed in a one-mile borehole), and the absence of firm revenue or operating reactors. Selection for the Department of Energy’s Reactor Pilot Program and site work in Kansas provide some positive backdrop, but the compressed timeline and lack of demonstrated commercial milestones have tempered enthusiasm. The 10.4% chance assigned to no IPO before August 2026 reflects earlier delays around the original late-May pricing window.
Traders appear to view the lower revised range as the most credible outcome given current market conditions for speculative nuclear and AI-power plays, with limited probability mass shifting into higher valuation buckets.
This market will resolve based on Deep Fission's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 29 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before August 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 29 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before August 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
マーケット開始日： May 27, 2026, 4:07 PM ET
音量
$20,163終了日
2026/05/29マーケット開始日
May 27, 2026, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on Deep Fission's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 29 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before August 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.**Deep Fission’s revised IPO terms are the dominant driver behind the 63% probability traders assign to a closing market cap below $1.25 billion.** On May 20, 2026, the Berkeley-based developer of underground small modular reactors (SMRs) filed to raise up to $156 million by selling 6 million shares at $24–$26, implying a roughly $1.6–1.7 billion fully diluted valuation on Nasdaq under ticker FISN. Within weeks, the deal was sharply downsized to 2.5 million shares at $16–$18, cutting expected proceeds by about 72% and targeting a midpoint market cap near $1.1 billion.
This reduction aligns with the company’s pre-revenue status, ongoing development of its Gravity Nuclear Reactor (a 15 MWe pressurized-water design placed in a one-mile borehole), and the absence of firm revenue or operating reactors. Selection for the Department of Energy’s Reactor Pilot Program and site work in Kansas provide some positive backdrop, but the compressed timeline and lack of demonstrated commercial milestones have tempered enthusiasm. The 10.4% chance assigned to no IPO before August 2026 reflects earlier delays around the original late-May pricing window.
Traders appear to view the lower revised range as the most credible outcome given current market conditions for speculative nuclear and AI-power plays, with limited probability mass shifting into higher valuation buckets.
This market will resolve based on Deep Fission's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 29 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before August 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 29 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before August 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
音量
$20,163終了日
2026/05/29マーケット開始日
May 27, 2026, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Deep Fission’s revised IPO terms are the dominant driver behind the 63% probability traders assign to a closing market cap below $1.25 billion.** On May 20, 2026, the Berkeley-based developer of underground small modular reactors (SMRs) filed to raise up to $156 million by selling 6 million shares at $24–$26, implying a roughly $1.6–1.7 billion fully diluted valuation on Nasdaq under ticker FISN. Within weeks, the deal was sharply downsized to 2.5 million shares at $16–$18, cutting expected proceeds by about 72% and targeting a midpoint market cap near $1.1 billion. This reduction aligns with the company’s pre-revenue status, ongoing development of its Gravity Nuclear Reactor (a 15 MWe pressurized-water design placed in a one-mile borehole), and the absence of firm revenue or operating reactors. Selection for the Department of Energy’s Reactor Pilot Program and site work in Kansas provide some positive backdrop, but the compressed timeline and lack of demonstrated commercial milestones have tempered enthusiasm. The 10.4% chance assigned to no IPO before August 2026 reflects earlier delays around the original late-May pricing window. Traders appear to view the lower revised range as the most credible outcome given current market conditions for speculative nuclear and AI-power plays, with limited probability mass shifting into higher valuation buckets.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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