Elon Musk’s sustained high-volume activity on X continues to anchor trader expectations for his August 2026 tweet total, with market-implied odds clustering tightly between roughly 780 and 880 posts. Recent submarket data and daily tracking show him averaging in the mid-20s per day during the first half of the month, consistent with his established pattern of frequent replies, commentary, and platform engagement. This pace aligns with broader 2025–2026 trends of roughly 25–35 posts daily outside of major travel or regulatory distractions, projecting a full-month range that favors the leading buckets. Key swing factors include any late-month slowdown from business travel, earnings cycles, or external events, though historical consistency has kept probabilities compressed rather than skewed toward extremes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日800-839 15.1%
840-879 13.1%
780-799 12.1%
760-779 11.5%
$151,075 Vol.
$151,075 Vol.
300-319
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
1%
600-619
1%
620-639
2%
640-659
3%
660-679
3%
680-699
5%
700-719
7%
720-739
9%
740-759
11%
760-779
12%
780-799
12%
800-839
15%
840-879
13%
880-919
9%
920-959
5%
960-999
2%
1000+
4%
800-839 15.1%
840-879 13.1%
780-799 12.1%
760-779 11.5%
$151,075 Vol.
$151,075 Vol.
300-319
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
1%
600-619
1%
620-639
2%
640-659
3%
660-679
3%
680-699
5%
700-719
7%
720-739
9%
740-759
11%
760-779
12%
780-799
12%
800-839
15%
840-879
13%
880-919
9%
920-959
5%
960-999
2%
1000+
4%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Jul 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s sustained high-volume activity on X continues to anchor trader expectations for his August 2026 tweet total, with market-implied odds clustering tightly between roughly 780 and 880 posts. Recent submarket data and daily tracking show him averaging in the mid-20s per day during the first half of the month, consistent with his established pattern of frequent replies, commentary, and platform engagement. This pace aligns with broader 2025–2026 trends of roughly 25–35 posts daily outside of major travel or regulatory distractions, projecting a full-month range that favors the leading buckets. Key swing factors include any late-month slowdown from business travel, earnings cycles, or external events, though historical consistency has kept probabilities compressed rather than skewed toward extremes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問