Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings through mid-May have lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year, yet the 68.5 percent probability assigned to no hike in 2026 reflects trader consensus that persistent but not yet policy-threatening price pressures and a still-resilient labor market will keep the federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75 percent through year-end. Brokerage forecasts from BofA and Goldman Sachs now push the first cut into 2027, while CME FedWatch futures price only a modest chance of any tightening before January 2027. The June FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI and PCE releases remain key near-term catalysts that could alter the rate-path trajectory if inflation moderates or accelerates further.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$1,103,241 Vol.
$1,103,241 Vol.
2026/12/09
はい
$1,103,241 Vol.
$1,103,241 Vol.
2026/12/09
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings through mid-May have lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year, yet the 68.5 percent probability assigned to no hike in 2026 reflects trader consensus that persistent but not yet policy-threatening price pressures and a still-resilient labor market will keep the federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75 percent through year-end. Brokerage forecasts from BofA and Goldman Sachs now push the first cut into 2027, while CME FedWatch futures price only a modest chance of any tightening before January 2027. The June FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI and PCE releases remain key near-term catalysts that could alter the rate-path trajectory if inflation moderates or accelerates further.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
音量
$1,103,241終了日
2026/12/09マーケット開始日
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings through mid-May have lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year, yet the 68.5 percent probability assigned to no hike in 2026 reflects trader consensus that persistent but not yet policy-threatening price pressures and a still-resilient labor market will keep the federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75 percent through year-end. Brokerage forecasts from BofA and Goldman Sachs now push the first cut into 2027, while CME FedWatch futures price only a modest chance of any tightening before January 2027. The June FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI and PCE releases remain key near-term catalysts that could alter the rate-path trajectory if inflation moderates or accelerates further.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$1,103,241終了日
2026/12/09マーケット開始日
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings through mid-May have lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year, yet the 68.5 percent probability assigned to no hike in 2026 reflects trader consensus that persistent but not yet policy-threatening price pressures and a still-resilient labor market will keep the federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75 percent through year-end. Brokerage forecasts from BofA and Goldman Sachs now push the first cut into 2027, while CME FedWatch futures price only a modest chance of any tightening before January 2027. The June FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI and PCE releases remain key near-term catalysts that could alter the rate-path trajectory if inflation moderates or accelerates further.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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