Elon Musk’s September 14 roadmap posts have become the main driver of trader sentiment, positioning Grok 5 as the xAI model expected to reach AGI while placing Grok 4.7, 4.8 (2.5-trillion-parameter model finishing basic training this week before reinforcement learning), and 4.9 ahead of it. Earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets slipped without a release, and Grok 5 remains in training on Colossus 2 with no official date or benchmarks confirmed. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s Opus 5 series and OpenAI’s Astra/Fable models, plus xAI’s pattern of rapid but iterative releases, keeps near-term probabilities modest. Traders are watching 4.8’s reinforcement-learning phase and any multimodal fixes for signs that the flagship timeline could stabilize or slip further into 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$13,667 Vol.
2026/10/31
10月31日
14%
11月30日
16%
12月31日
56%
$13,667 Vol.
10月31日
$2,927 Vol.
14%
11月30日
$1,193 Vol.
16%
12月31日
$4,469 Vol.
56%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 14 roadmap posts have become the main driver of trader sentiment, positioning Grok 5 as the xAI model expected to reach AGI while placing Grok 4.7, 4.8 (2.5-trillion-parameter model finishing basic training this week before reinforcement learning), and 4.9 ahead of it. Earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets slipped without a release, and Grok 5 remains in training on Colossus 2 with no official date or benchmarks confirmed. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s Opus 5 series and OpenAI’s Astra/Fable models, plus xAI’s pattern of rapid but iterative releases, keeps near-term probabilities modest. Traders are watching 4.8’s reinforcement-learning phase and any multimodal fixes for signs that the flagship timeline could stabilize or slip further into 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ET
音量
$13,667終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 14 roadmap posts have become the main driver of trader sentiment, positioning Grok 5 as the xAI model expected to reach AGI while placing Grok 4.7, 4.8 (2.5-trillion-parameter model finishing basic training this week before reinforcement learning), and 4.9 ahead of it. Earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets slipped without a release, and Grok 5 remains in training on Colossus 2 with no official date or benchmarks confirmed. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s Opus 5 series and OpenAI’s Astra/Fable models, plus xAI’s pattern of rapid but iterative releases, keeps near-term probabilities modest. Traders are watching 4.8’s reinforcement-learning phase and any multimodal fixes for signs that the flagship timeline could stabilize or slip further into 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$13,667終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Elon Musk’s September 14 roadmap posts have become the main driver of trader sentiment, positioning Grok 5 as the xAI model expected to reach AGI while placing Grok 4.7, 4.8 (2.5-trillion-parameter model finishing basic training this week before reinforcement learning), and 4.9 ahead of it. Earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets slipped without a release, and Grok 5 remains in training on Colossus 2 with no official date or benchmarks confirmed. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s Opus 5 series and OpenAI’s Astra/Fable models, plus xAI’s pattern of rapid but iterative releases, keeps near-term probabilities modest. Traders are watching 4.8’s reinforcement-learning phase and any multimodal fixes for signs that the flagship timeline could stabilize or slip further into 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問