Recent forecast models and Pakistan Meteorological Department guidance indicate a daily high near 31°C in Karachi on September 5, driven by persistent high humidity, extensive cloud cover, and moderate westerly winds that limit daytime heating during the post-monsoon transition. Current observations show surface temperatures in the low 30s Celsius with similar patterns expected to hold, consistent with climatological September averages around 32°C. This consensus underpins the market's leading 31°C outcome at 44% implied probability, followed by 32°C at 27%, while lower or higher thresholds reflect uncertainty in exact peak timing or brief clearing. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.