Recent ensemble forecasts from major global models highlight a ridge of high pressure over the Iberian Peninsula as the key driver behind the market's tight clustering around 26–27°C for Madrid's May 19 high. Clear skies and light winds are expected to allow strong daytime heating, yet modest moisture advection and slight model spread in boundary-layer mixing keep the most likely outcomes narrowly separated. Historical May maxima average near 23°C, so any deviation will hinge on whether afternoon temperatures exceed typical values by 3–4°C. Updated runs from ECMWF and GFS this evening, along with AEMET verification criteria at the Madrid-Barajas station, will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月19日のマドリードの最高気温は?
27°C 29%
26°C 27%
25°C 13%
28°C 9%
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
3%
25°C
13%
26°C
27%
27°C
29%
28°C
9%
29°C
7%
30°C or higher
3%
27°C 29%
26°C 27%
25°C 13%
28°C 9%
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
3%
25°C
13%
26°C
27%
27°C
29%
28°C
9%
29°C
7%
30°C or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 17, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent ensemble forecasts from major global models highlight a ridge of high pressure over the Iberian Peninsula as the key driver behind the market's tight clustering around 26–27°C for Madrid's May 19 high. Clear skies and light winds are expected to allow strong daytime heating, yet modest moisture advection and slight model spread in boundary-layer mixing keep the most likely outcomes narrowly separated. Historical May maxima average near 23°C, so any deviation will hinge on whether afternoon temperatures exceed typical values by 3–4°C. Updated runs from ECMWF and GFS this evening, along with AEMET verification criteria at the Madrid-Barajas station, will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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