Recent ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration, ECMWF, and GFS place Beijing’s May 17 high near 20 °C, reflecting a weak cold front that advects cooler northerly air while sustaining extensive cloud cover and light rain that sharply limits daytime solar heating. Partial frontal clearance could briefly allow temperatures to reach 21–22 °C, yet persistent overcast favors readings at or below 19 °C. These model spreads explain why the market assigns 35 % to 20 °C and 29.5 % to 19 °C, with lower probabilities for outcomes outside the 19–21 °C band. Traders weigh the latest model runs and observational updates against historical mid-May climatology, where comparable frontal passages have produced similar narrow temperature ranges.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月17日の北京の最高気温は?
19°C 32%
20°C 32%
21°C 21%
18°C 13.2%
$18,144 Vol.
$18,144 Vol.
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
13%
19°C
28%
20°C
32%
21°C
21%
22°C
5%
23°C or higher
1%
19°C 32%
20°C 32%
21°C 21%
18°C 13.2%
$18,144 Vol.
$18,144 Vol.
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
13%
19°C
28%
20°C
32%
21°C
21%
22°C
5%
23°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration, ECMWF, and GFS place Beijing’s May 17 high near 20 °C, reflecting a weak cold front that advects cooler northerly air while sustaining extensive cloud cover and light rain that sharply limits daytime solar heating. Partial frontal clearance could briefly allow temperatures to reach 21–22 °C, yet persistent overcast favors readings at or below 19 °C. These model spreads explain why the market assigns 35 % to 20 °C and 29.5 % to 19 °C, with lower probabilities for outcomes outside the 19–21 °C band. Traders weigh the latest model runs and observational updates against historical mid-May climatology, where comparable frontal passages have produced similar narrow temperature ranges.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問