The market's 97.9% implied probability for a 21°C high temperature in Milan on May 17 reflects the tight consensus among numerical weather prediction models and current observational data from the Po Valley region. Mid-May climatological averages for Milan place daily maxima near 21°C under typical spring anticyclonic conditions, with limited variability from recent stable atmospheric patterns. Ensemble forecasts show minimal spread around this value, consistent with low wind speeds and moderate solar insolation expected through the afternoon. A realistic challenge could arise from an unforecasted warm advection event or localized urban heat effects that briefly exceed model guidance, though such shifts remain low-probability given the latest model runs and measurement cutoff.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月17日のミラノの最高気温は?
21°C 98.0%
22°C 1.8%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$39,735 Vol.
$39,735 Vol.
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
98%
22°C
2%
23°C
1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
21°C 98.0%
22°C 1.8%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$39,735 Vol.
$39,735 Vol.
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
98%
22°C
2%
23°C
1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The market's 97.9% implied probability for a 21°C high temperature in Milan on May 17 reflects the tight consensus among numerical weather prediction models and current observational data from the Po Valley region. Mid-May climatological averages for Milan place daily maxima near 21°C under typical spring anticyclonic conditions, with limited variability from recent stable atmospheric patterns. Ensemble forecasts show minimal spread around this value, consistent with low wind speeds and moderate solar insolation expected through the afternoon. A realistic challenge could arise from an unforecasted warm advection event or localized urban heat effects that briefly exceed model guidance, though such shifts remain low-probability given the latest model runs and measurement cutoff.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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