Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the Italian Meteorological Service converge on a daytime maximum near 21°C for Milan on May 17, driven by stable high-pressure ridging over the Po Valley that limits strong insolation and vertical mixing. This aligns with mid-May climatological normals of 20–23°C, where afternoon peaks rarely exceed 22°C without pronounced warm advection. Recent model runs show minimal spread, keeping the 22°C outcome at low implied probability while rendering warmer thresholds statistically remote. Final resolution hinges on the official 24-hour maximum recorded at Milano Linate Airport, with real-time surface observations through midday reinforcing the current trader consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月17日のミラノの最高気温は?
21°C 97.8%
22°C 2.0%
23°C <1%
25°C or higher <1%
$37,255 Vol.
$37,255 Vol.
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
98%
22°C
2%
23°C
1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
21°C 97.8%
22°C 2.0%
23°C <1%
25°C or higher <1%
$37,255 Vol.
$37,255 Vol.
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
98%
22°C
2%
23°C
1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the Italian Meteorological Service converge on a daytime maximum near 21°C for Milan on May 17, driven by stable high-pressure ridging over the Po Valley that limits strong insolation and vertical mixing. This aligns with mid-May climatological normals of 20–23°C, where afternoon peaks rarely exceed 22°C without pronounced warm advection. Recent model runs show minimal spread, keeping the 22°C outcome at low implied probability while rendering warmer thresholds statistically remote. Final resolution hinges on the official 24-hour maximum recorded at Milano Linate Airport, with real-time surface observations through midday reinforcing the current trader consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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