Recent meteorological model consensus, including runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the Global Forecast System, points to a daytime maximum of 26°C in Moscow under overcast skies with light rain and southerly flow advecting milder air. This alignment with observed surface temperatures and boundary-layer stability has produced the overwhelming market-implied probability near 100 percent for that exact threshold. Historical May climatology for the region shows average highs near 18–20°C, so the current anomaly reflects a transient warm episode rather than a long-term shift. A faster-moving cold front or heavier precipitation bands could still trim the peak by 1–2°C before evening observations close, though guidance indicates low likelihood of such a revision before the daily maximum is recorded.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月17日のモスクワの最高気温は?
26°C 99.8%
27°C <1%
28°C or higher <1%
18°C or below <1%
$44,330 Vol.
$44,330 Vol.
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
100%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
26°C 99.8%
27°C <1%
28°C or higher <1%
18°C or below <1%
$44,330 Vol.
$44,330 Vol.
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
100%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent meteorological model consensus, including runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the Global Forecast System, points to a daytime maximum of 26°C in Moscow under overcast skies with light rain and southerly flow advecting milder air. This alignment with observed surface temperatures and boundary-layer stability has produced the overwhelming market-implied probability near 100 percent for that exact threshold. Historical May climatology for the region shows average highs near 18–20°C, so the current anomaly reflects a transient warm episode rather than a long-term shift. A faster-moving cold front or heavier precipitation bands could still trim the peak by 1–2°C before evening observations close, though guidance indicates low likelihood of such a revision before the daily maximum is recorded.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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