Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models have converged on a daytime maximum of 16–17°C for Munich, positioning these thresholds as the clear market leaders at combined implied probabilities above 70%. This outlook reflects moderate northwesterly flow and partial cloud cover limiting solar heating, consistent with the cool anomaly that kept yesterday’s high at just 13°C—well below the mid-May climatological average of 17–19°C from DWD long-term normals. Traders are weighting the latest model consensus heavily, with resolution hinging on the official Deutscher Wetterdienst reading at Munich Airport; any late-day clearing or stronger southerly advection could still nudge the peak toward 18°C, though current guidance assigns that outcome low probability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月17日のミュンヘンの最高気温は?
16°C 53%
17°C 26%
15°C 16%
18°C 2.7%
$21,957 Vol.
$21,957 Vol.
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
16%
16°C
53%
17°C
26%
18°C
3%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
16°C 53%
17°C 26%
15°C 16%
18°C 2.7%
$21,957 Vol.
$21,957 Vol.
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
16%
16°C
53%
17°C
26%
18°C
3%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models have converged on a daytime maximum of 16–17°C for Munich, positioning these thresholds as the clear market leaders at combined implied probabilities above 70%. This outlook reflects moderate northwesterly flow and partial cloud cover limiting solar heating, consistent with the cool anomaly that kept yesterday’s high at just 13°C—well below the mid-May climatological average of 17–19°C from DWD long-term normals. Traders are weighting the latest model consensus heavily, with resolution hinging on the official Deutscher Wetterdienst reading at Munich Airport; any late-day clearing or stronger southerly advection could still nudge the peak toward 18°C, though current guidance assigns that outcome low probability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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