Recent forecast updates from the Korea Meteorological Administration highlight a southerly flow of warmer, moist air over the Korean Peninsula, driving the strong market-implied odds for Seoul’s highest temperature on May 18 to reach 25°C or above. Ensemble model guidance consistently projects afternoon highs in the mid-20s Celsius under partly cloudy skies, aligning with mid-May climatology while elevated Yellow Sea sea-surface temperatures provide additional warming. This setup favors the 25°C or higher outcome at 79.5% probability, with the 24°C bin holding the remaining significant share at 19.5%. Traders are closely watching the next model runs and official KMA briefings, as any shift in steering patterns or cloud cover could adjust these probabilities before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月18日のソウルの最高気温は?
25°C or higher 81%
24°C 19%
23°C 2.9%
22°C <1%
$77,553 Vol.
$77,553 Vol.
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
3%
24°C
19%
25°C or higher
81%
25°C or higher 81%
24°C 19%
23°C 2.9%
22°C <1%
$77,553 Vol.
$77,553 Vol.
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
3%
24°C
19%
25°C or higher
81%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent forecast updates from the Korea Meteorological Administration highlight a southerly flow of warmer, moist air over the Korean Peninsula, driving the strong market-implied odds for Seoul’s highest temperature on May 18 to reach 25°C or above. Ensemble model guidance consistently projects afternoon highs in the mid-20s Celsius under partly cloudy skies, aligning with mid-May climatology while elevated Yellow Sea sea-surface temperatures provide additional warming. This setup favors the 25°C or higher outcome at 79.5% probability, with the 24°C bin holding the remaining significant share at 19.5%. Traders are closely watching the next model runs and official KMA briefings, as any shift in steering patterns or cloud cover could adjust these probabilities before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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