Latest numerical weather prediction models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the Global Forecast System indicate a maximum temperature in Tel Aviv on May 18 most likely between 30°C and 31°C, driving the closely matched market-implied odds of 41.0% and 31.8% for those exact outcomes. Regional atmospheric conditions, including a weak high-pressure ridge and light easterly flow, are expected to limit significant warming while Mediterranean sea breezes moderate coastal highs. Ensemble spread in these models reflects typical springtime variability in the eastern Mediterranean, where small shifts in cloud cover or boundary-layer moisture could push the daily peak across the 30–31°C threshold. Official observations from the Israel Meteorological Service will determine resolution based on the highest recorded reading at the Tel Aviv station.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月18日のテルアビブの最高気温は?
30°C 41%
31°C 32.4%
32°C or higher 17.6%
29°C 12%
$12,317 Vol.
$12,317 Vol.
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
3%
29°C
12%
30°C
41%
31°C
32%
32°C or higher
18%
30°C 41%
31°C 32.4%
32°C or higher 17.6%
29°C 12%
$12,317 Vol.
$12,317 Vol.
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
3%
29°C
12%
30°C
41%
31°C
32%
32°C or higher
18%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Latest numerical weather prediction models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the Global Forecast System indicate a maximum temperature in Tel Aviv on May 18 most likely between 30°C and 31°C, driving the closely matched market-implied odds of 41.0% and 31.8% for those exact outcomes. Regional atmospheric conditions, including a weak high-pressure ridge and light easterly flow, are expected to limit significant warming while Mediterranean sea breezes moderate coastal highs. Ensemble spread in these models reflects typical springtime variability in the eastern Mediterranean, where small shifts in cloud cover or boundary-layer moisture could push the daily peak across the 30–31°C threshold. Official observations from the Israel Meteorological Service will determine resolution based on the highest recorded reading at the Tel Aviv station.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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