A strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Kanto plain is driving trader consensus toward a maximum of 28°C or higher in Tokyo on May 18, with current Japan Meteorological Agency model guidance and ensemble clusters projecting clear skies, light southerly flow, and robust afternoon insolation. This synoptic setup favors temperatures several degrees above the mid-May climatological average of 23–25°C, while historical analogs under similar ridging patterns have frequently produced upper-20s highs. Minimal model spread and the absence of significant cloud cover or frontal activity reinforce the 72% market-implied probability for the leading outcome, with only narrow windows for downward revision from final surface observations or localized cooling overnight.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月18日の東京の最高気温は?
28°C or higher 72%
27°C 26%
26°C 5.0%
25°C <1%
$40,560 Vol.
$40,560 Vol.
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
5%
27°C
26%
28°C or higher
72%
28°C or higher 72%
27°C 26%
26°C 5.0%
25°C <1%
$40,560 Vol.
$40,560 Vol.
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
5%
27°C
26%
28°C or higher
72%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
A strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Kanto plain is driving trader consensus toward a maximum of 28°C or higher in Tokyo on May 18, with current Japan Meteorological Agency model guidance and ensemble clusters projecting clear skies, light southerly flow, and robust afternoon insolation. This synoptic setup favors temperatures several degrees above the mid-May climatological average of 23–25°C, while historical analogs under similar ridging patterns have frequently produced upper-20s highs. Minimal model spread and the absence of significant cloud cover or frontal activity reinforce the 72% market-implied probability for the leading outcome, with only narrow windows for downward revision from final surface observations or localized cooling overnight.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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