Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System have converged on a daytime maximum near 13°C for Warsaw, establishing the dominant market consensus around this outcome. Persistent cloud cover, light northerly winds, and modest surface heating have suppressed temperatures below the mid-May climatological average of roughly 18–20°C, with official observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport aligning closely with model guidance. Minor shifts in cloud timing or brief wind changes could permit a short spike toward 14°C, though current atmospheric stability makes such deviations unlikely before the measurement period closes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月17日のワルシャワの最高気温は?
13°C 99.7%
14°C <1%
15°C or higher <1%
5°C or below <1%
$49,669 Vol.
$49,669 Vol.
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
100%
14°C
<1%
15°C or higher
<1%
13°C 99.7%
14°C <1%
15°C or higher <1%
5°C or below <1%
$49,669 Vol.
$49,669 Vol.
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
100%
14°C
<1%
15°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System have converged on a daytime maximum near 13°C for Warsaw, establishing the dominant market consensus around this outcome. Persistent cloud cover, light northerly winds, and modest surface heating have suppressed temperatures below the mid-May climatological average of roughly 18–20°C, with official observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport aligning closely with model guidance. Minor shifts in cloud timing or brief wind changes could permit a short spike toward 14°C, though current atmospheric stability makes such deviations unlikely before the measurement period closes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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