Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System have converged on a daytime maximum of 13°C for Warsaw, anchoring the market’s overwhelming 99.7% implied probability for that outcome. This alignment reflects stable atmospheric conditions with modest southerly flow under a broad high-pressure ridge, keeping temperatures close to the climatological average for mid-May. Official observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport and surrounding stations continue to support this range, with minimal model spread reducing uncertainty. A sudden shift in steering winds or an unforecasted cold pool could still push readings to 14°C or hold them at 12°C, though such deviations remain low-probability given current guidance.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月17日のワルシャワの最高気温は?
13°C 99.7%
14°C <1%
15°C or higher <1%
5°C or below <1%
$49,696 Vol.
$49,696 Vol.
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
100%
14°C
<1%
15°C or higher
<1%
13°C 99.7%
14°C <1%
15°C or higher <1%
5°C or below <1%
$49,696 Vol.
$49,696 Vol.
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
100%
14°C
<1%
15°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System have converged on a daytime maximum of 13°C for Warsaw, anchoring the market’s overwhelming 99.7% implied probability for that outcome. This alignment reflects stable atmospheric conditions with modest southerly flow under a broad high-pressure ridge, keeping temperatures close to the climatological average for mid-May. Official observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport and surrounding stations continue to support this range, with minimal model spread reducing uncertainty. A sudden shift in steering winds or an unforecasted cold pool could still push readings to 14°C or hold them at 12°C, though such deviations remain low-probability given current guidance.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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