Ensemble model runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System have converged on a daytime maximum near 13°C at Warsaw Chopin Airport, anchoring trader consensus at 99.7% implied probability for that exact outcome. Cool northwesterly flow and persistent cloud cover have suppressed daytime heating below the mid-May climatological average of 16–18°C, while limited solar insolation and light winds further cap any late-day rise. Minor uncertainties in exact cloud timing or brief wind shifts could permit a brief spike to 14°C, though such scenarios remain low-probability given the current observational trends. Final confirmation will come from official station readings at the close of the calendar day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月17日のワルシャワの最高気温は?
13°C 99.7%
14°C <1%
15°C or higher <1%
5°C or below <1%
$49,598 Vol.
$49,598 Vol.
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
100%
14°C
<1%
15°C or higher
<1%
13°C 99.7%
14°C <1%
15°C or higher <1%
5°C or below <1%
$49,598 Vol.
$49,598 Vol.
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
100%
14°C
<1%
15°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ensemble model runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System have converged on a daytime maximum near 13°C at Warsaw Chopin Airport, anchoring trader consensus at 99.7% implied probability for that exact outcome. Cool northwesterly flow and persistent cloud cover have suppressed daytime heating below the mid-May climatological average of 16–18°C, while limited solar insolation and light winds further cap any late-day rise. Minor uncertainties in exact cloud timing or brief wind shifts could permit a brief spike to 14°C, though such scenarios remain low-probability given the current observational trends. Final confirmation will come from official station readings at the close of the calendar day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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