Official forecasts from MetService New Zealand and supporting ensemble model runs establish a daytime maximum of 14°C for Wellington on May 17, driving the market's near-certain 99.7% implied probability on that outcome. This aligns with mid-autumn climatology in the Southern Hemisphere, where moderate southerly winds, persistent high cloud cover, and reduced solar insolation typically limit warming to near the long-term May average high. Resolution depends on the highest official reading at primary stations, with current model consensus showing minimal divergence. A late-day shift to clearer skies or enhanced northerly flow could briefly elevate readings, though such changes remain unlikely given stable synoptic patterns and the tight forecast window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月17日のウェリントンの最高気温は?
14℃ 99.7%
15°C <1%
8℃以下 <1%
9°C <1%
$53,840 Vol.
$53,840 Vol.
8℃以下
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12℃
<1%
13°C
<1%
14℃
100%
15°C
<1%
16℃
<1%
17°C
<1%
18℃以上
<1%
14℃ 99.7%
15°C <1%
8℃以下 <1%
9°C <1%
$53,840 Vol.
$53,840 Vol.
8℃以下
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12℃
<1%
13°C
<1%
14℃
100%
15°C
<1%
16℃
<1%
17°C
<1%
18℃以上
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Official forecasts from MetService New Zealand and supporting ensemble model runs establish a daytime maximum of 14°C for Wellington on May 17, driving the market's near-certain 99.7% implied probability on that outcome. This aligns with mid-autumn climatology in the Southern Hemisphere, where moderate southerly winds, persistent high cloud cover, and reduced solar insolation typically limit warming to near the long-term May average high. Resolution depends on the highest official reading at primary stations, with current model consensus showing minimal divergence. A late-day shift to clearer skies or enhanced northerly flow could briefly elevate readings, though such changes remain unlikely given stable synoptic patterns and the tight forecast window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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