**Recent escalation in tensions with Iran has prompted President Trump’s scheduled primetime address to the nation on Thursday evening, July 16, creating uncertainty over its duration among traders.** The announcement on Truth Social, timed amid diplomatic and military developments, leaves open whether the remarks will focus on a narrow update or broader policy context, keeping probabilities for 20-25 minutes (49%) and shorter bins (43.5%) closely matched. Historical patterns for such crisis-driven national addresses show wide variation, from concise statements to more extended explanations, while past Trump primetime speeches demonstrate flexibility in length depending on the moment’s demands. Factors such as confirmation of the exact format, any pre-speech briefings, or shifts in the underlying geopolitical situation could widen the gap by clarifying whether brevity or substance is prioritized. Resolution hinges on the live delivery length once the address begins.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日20〜25分 50%
30分以上 45%
5分未満 44%
5〜10分 44%
新規
新規
2026/07/17
5分未満
44%
5〜10分
44%
10～15分
44%
15〜20分
44%
20〜25分
50%
25～30分
44%
30分以上
45%
20〜25分 50%
30分以上 45%
5分未満 44%
5〜10分 44%
新規
新規
2026/07/17
5分未満
$0 Vol.
44%
5〜10分
$0 Vol.
44%
10～15分
$0 Vol.
44%
15〜20分
$0 Vol.
44%
20〜25分
$0 Vol.
50%
25～30分
$0 Vol.
44%
30分以上
$0 Vol.
45%
Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver a Speech to the Nation on July 16, 2026 at 9PM ET (https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116914147668764804).
This market will resolve based on the length of time of Donald Trump's Speech to the Nation.
The speech length will be measured from the start of when Trump begins audibly speaking at the podium during the Speech to the Nation until the moment he finishes his speech. If Trump remains at the podium and continues speaking (e.g. saying "Thank you" to the crowd) this will not count toward the length of his address.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the start of Trump’s Speech to the Nation is cancelled or delayed beyond July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.**Recent escalation in tensions with Iran has prompted President Trump’s scheduled primetime address to the nation on Thursday evening, July 16, creating uncertainty over its duration among traders.** The announcement on Truth Social, timed amid diplomatic and military developments, leaves open whether the remarks will focus on a narrow update or broader policy context, keeping probabilities for 20-25 minutes (49%) and shorter bins (43.5%) closely matched. Historical patterns for such crisis-driven national addresses show wide variation, from concise statements to more extended explanations, while past Trump primetime speeches demonstrate flexibility in length depending on the moment’s demands. Factors such as confirmation of the exact format, any pre-speech briefings, or shifts in the underlying geopolitical situation could widen the gap by clarifying whether brevity or substance is prioritized. Resolution hinges on the live delivery length once the address begins.
Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver a Speech to the Nation on July 16, 2026 at 9PM ET (https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116914147668764804).
This market will resolve based on the length of time of Donald Trump's Speech to the Nation.
The speech length will be measured from the start of when Trump begins audibly speaking at the podium during the Speech to the Nation until the moment he finishes his speech. If Trump remains at the podium and continues speaking (e.g. saying "Thank you" to the crowd) this will not count toward the length of his address.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the start of Trump’s Speech to the Nation is cancelled or delayed beyond July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the length of time of Donald Trump's Speech to the Nation.
The speech length will be measured from the start of when Trump begins audibly speaking at the podium during the Speech to the Nation until the moment he finishes his speech. If Trump remains at the podium and continues speaking (e.g. saying "Thank you" to the crowd) this will not count toward the length of his address.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the start of Trump’s Speech to the Nation is cancelled or delayed beyond July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
マーケット開始日： Jul 13, 2026, 8:13 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/07/16マーケット開始日
Jul 13, 2026, 8:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver a Speech to the Nation on July 16, 2026 at 9PM ET (https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116914147668764804).
This market will resolve based on the length of time of Donald Trump's Speech to the Nation.
The speech length will be measured from the start of when Trump begins audibly speaking at the podium during the Speech to the Nation until the moment he finishes his speech. If Trump remains at the podium and continues speaking (e.g. saying "Thank you" to the crowd) this will not count toward the length of his address.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the start of Trump’s Speech to the Nation is cancelled or delayed beyond July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.**Recent escalation in tensions with Iran has prompted President Trump’s scheduled primetime address to the nation on Thursday evening, July 16, creating uncertainty over its duration among traders.** The announcement on Truth Social, timed amid diplomatic and military developments, leaves open whether the remarks will focus on a narrow update or broader policy context, keeping probabilities for 20-25 minutes (49%) and shorter bins (43.5%) closely matched. Historical patterns for such crisis-driven national addresses show wide variation, from concise statements to more extended explanations, while past Trump primetime speeches demonstrate flexibility in length depending on the moment’s demands. Factors such as confirmation of the exact format, any pre-speech briefings, or shifts in the underlying geopolitical situation could widen the gap by clarifying whether brevity or substance is prioritized. Resolution hinges on the live delivery length once the address begins.
Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver a Speech to the Nation on July 16, 2026 at 9PM ET (https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116914147668764804).
This market will resolve based on the length of time of Donald Trump's Speech to the Nation.
The speech length will be measured from the start of when Trump begins audibly speaking at the podium during the Speech to the Nation until the moment he finishes his speech. If Trump remains at the podium and continues speaking (e.g. saying "Thank you" to the crowd) this will not count toward the length of his address.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the start of Trump’s Speech to the Nation is cancelled or delayed beyond July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the length of time of Donald Trump's Speech to the Nation.
The speech length will be measured from the start of when Trump begins audibly speaking at the podium during the Speech to the Nation until the moment he finishes his speech. If Trump remains at the podium and continues speaking (e.g. saying "Thank you" to the crowd) this will not count toward the length of his address.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the start of Trump’s Speech to the Nation is cancelled or delayed beyond July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
音量
$0終了日
2026/07/16マーケット開始日
Jul 13, 2026, 8:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent escalation in tensions with Iran has prompted President Trump’s scheduled primetime address to the nation on Thursday evening, July 16, creating uncertainty over its duration among traders.** The announcement on Truth Social, timed amid diplomatic and military developments, leaves open whether the remarks will focus on a narrow update or broader policy context, keeping probabilities for 20-25 minutes (49%) and shorter bins (43.5%) closely matched. Historical patterns for such crisis-driven national addresses show wide variation, from concise statements to more extended explanations, while past Trump primetime speeches demonstrate flexibility in length depending on the moment’s demands. Factors such as confirmation of the exact format, any pre-speech briefings, or shifts in the underlying geopolitical situation could widen the gap by clarifying whether brevity or substance is prioritized. Resolution hinges on the live delivery length once the address begins.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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