Republican House incumbents face primary challenges in 2026 amid redistricting adjustments and internal party tensions, with trader consensus heavily favoring 4-6 losses at 64 percent. Dan Crenshaw’s March defeat in Texas to a state legislator marked the first confirmed renomination loss of the cycle and reflected organized pressure from conservative factions on members viewed as insufficiently aligned with Trump priorities. Similar dynamics appear in races involving Tony Gonzales and Thomas Massie, where challengers question incumbents’ records on key votes and foreign policy. Historical data shows an average of roughly six House incumbents per cycle lose renomination across both parties, a baseline reinforced by the current absence of a broader anti-incumbent wave. Upcoming primaries through summer will test whether additional upsets materialize or whether the pattern stabilizes near that midpoint.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日4～6 64.5%
7〜9 23.5%
>15 7.4%
13〜15 6.3%
$51,700 Vol.
$51,700 Vol.
3未満
<1%
4～6
66%
7〜9
20%
10〜12
1%
13〜15
6%
>15
7%
4～6 64.5%
7〜9 23.5%
>15 7.4%
13〜15 6.3%
$51,700 Vol.
$51,700 Vol.
3未満
$34,012 Vol.
<1%
4～6
$9,999 Vol.
66%
7〜9
$2,850 Vol.
20%
10〜12
$1,728 Vol.
1%
13〜15
$2,087 Vol.
6%
>15
$1,024 Vol.
7%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Republican House incumbents face primary challenges in 2026 amid redistricting adjustments and internal party tensions, with trader consensus heavily favoring 4-6 losses at 64 percent. Dan Crenshaw’s March defeat in Texas to a state legislator marked the first confirmed renomination loss of the cycle and reflected organized pressure from conservative factions on members viewed as insufficiently aligned with Trump priorities. Similar dynamics appear in races involving Tony Gonzales and Thomas Massie, where challengers question incumbents’ records on key votes and foreign policy. Historical data shows an average of roughly six House incumbents per cycle lose renomination across both parties, a baseline reinforced by the current absence of a broader anti-incumbent wave. Upcoming primaries through summer will test whether additional upsets materialize or whether the pattern stabilizes near that midpoint.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
マーケット開始日： Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
音量
$51,700マーケット開始日
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Republican House incumbents face primary challenges in 2026 amid redistricting adjustments and internal party tensions, with trader consensus heavily favoring 4-6 losses at 64 percent. Dan Crenshaw’s March defeat in Texas to a state legislator marked the first confirmed renomination loss of the cycle and reflected organized pressure from conservative factions on members viewed as insufficiently aligned with Trump priorities. Similar dynamics appear in races involving Tony Gonzales and Thomas Massie, where challengers question incumbents’ records on key votes and foreign policy. Historical data shows an average of roughly six House incumbents per cycle lose renomination across both parties, a baseline reinforced by the current absence of a broader anti-incumbent wave. Upcoming primaries through summer will test whether additional upsets materialize or whether the pattern stabilizes near that midpoint.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
音量
$51,700マーケット開始日
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican House incumbents face primary challenges in 2026 amid redistricting adjustments and internal party tensions, with trader consensus heavily favoring 4-6 losses at 64 percent. Dan Crenshaw’s March defeat in Texas to a state legislator marked the first confirmed renomination loss of the cycle and reflected organized pressure from conservative factions on members viewed as insufficiently aligned with Trump priorities. Similar dynamics appear in races involving Tony Gonzales and Thomas Massie, where challengers question incumbents’ records on key votes and foreign policy. Historical data shows an average of roughly six House incumbents per cycle lose renomination across both parties, a baseline reinforced by the current absence of a broader anti-incumbent wave. Upcoming primaries through summer will test whether additional upsets materialize or whether the pattern stabilizes near that midpoint.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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