**Ongoing Houthi threats and recent attacks have sustained elevated war-risk premiums and rerouting incentives, keeping weekly transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at subdued levels that align with the market-implied leader below 180 ships.** Recent developments include a Houthi missile strike on a cargo vessel in the strait and continued insecurity following the July 2026 Saudi shipping blockade declaration, which triggered a roughly 22% drop in overall crossings and a 39% decline in tanker transits. Daily movements have hovered in the mid-30s to low-40s range in late July into early August, but insurance exclusions for Saudi-linked vessels, selective targeting risks, and vessels signaling Chinese ownership or armed guards to deter attacks are compressing volumes further for the August 10–16 window. These factors, reinforced by persistent geopolitical frictions and the economic burden of longer Cape routes on shipping costs and schedules, underpin trader consensus around the sub-180 outcome while leaving room for modest rebounds if naval coalitions stabilize flows or if targeting narrows.